Friday, August 22, 2008

Drought worsens for North Alabama....Need help from Fay

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
805 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2008

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS STILL DETERIORATING...BUT FAY COULD CHANGE
THINGS...

SYNOPSIS...

ACCORDING TO THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...THE DROUGHT STATUS
CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE. EXTREME DROUGHT /D3/ CONDITIONS NOW COVER
ALL OF MARSHALL...JACKSON...AND DE KALB COUNTIES...AS WELL AS MOST
OF FRANKLIN COUNTY TENNESSEE...AND SOUTH AND EAST OF HUNTSVILLE IN
MADISON COUNTY. SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/ CONDITIONS COVER LINCOLN AND
MOORE COUNTIES IN TENNESSEE...AND CULLMAN...MORGAN...MADISON...AND
LIMESTONE COUNTIES...AND ABOUT HALF OF LAWRENCE COUNTY.

MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ COVERS MOST OF THE SHOALS REGION...WITH
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS /D0/ IN EXTREME NORTHWEST LAUDERDALE
COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

STATE AND LOCAL DECLARATIONS:
AS OF THE LATEST DECLARATION ON JULY 14TH...THE STATE OF ALABAMA HAS
NO COUNTIES UNDER A DROUGHT EMERGENCY. CULLMAN COUNTY REMAINS IN A
STATE-DECLARED DROUGHT WARNING. THE REMAINING 10 COUNTIES OF NORTH
ALABAMA ARE IN A STATE-DECLARED DROUGHT WATCH. A WATCH IS THE
SECOND-HIGHEST OF THE FOUR-LEVEL ALABAMA DROUGHT DECLARATION LEVEL
SYSTEM. A WARNING IS THE THIRD-HIGHEST.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS:
SOIL MOISTURE IS VERY LOW...DESPITE IMMEDIATE TOPSOIL BEING SOMEWHAT
MORE MOIST (ALLOWING FOR GREEN GRASS IN MANY AREAS). NEARLY 75
PERCENT OF THE NORTHERN DISTRICT OF THE STATE IS REPORTING SHORT OR
VERY SHORT CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH CROPS AREAWIDE ARE REPORTED TO BE IN
FAIR TO GOOD CONDITION...THERE ARE SPOTTY AREAS WHICH HAVE SEEN A
SIGNIFICANT LACK OF RAINFALL...A TYPICAL THING IN THE SUMMER. THESE
AREAS HAVE POOR TO VERY POOR CROPS...PARTICULARLY CORN AND SOYBEAN
CROPS.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS:
THE ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION CURRENTLY HAS NO COUNTIES IN A FIRE
ALERT OR DROUGHT EMERGENCY. THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) IS
GREATER THAN 500 IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. VALUES
GREATER THAN 500 INDICATE AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRES WHEN
ALL NECESSARY CONDITIONS FOR FIRE DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH ARE MET.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

RAINFALL HAS BEEN MINIMAL OVER THE LAST SEVEN DAYS. TOTALS WERE
GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH NO RAIN AT ALL OVER
MOST OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA. SOME
HEAVIER RAIN DID FALL IN ISOLATED SPOTS...MAINLY CENTRAL LAWRENCE
COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF MADISON COUNTY. EVEN THERE THOUGH...RAINFALL
WAS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH...WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEK.

RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 60 DAYS HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL ALMOST
AREAWIDE...EXCEPT ALONG THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. THE DRIEST
REGION IS THE AREA INCLUDED IN THE EXTREME DROUGHT /D3/...WHERE
TOTALS OVER THE LAST 60 DAYS ARE RUNNING 4 TO 8 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

DESPITE THE FACT THAT MORE RAIN HAS FALLEN SO FAR IN 2008 THAN
DURING LAST YEAR'S HISTORICALLY DRY SITUATION...IT IS BY NO MEANS
WET. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 INCHES
OVER NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE QUAD CITIES REGION...TO AS MUCH AS 35
TO 40 INCHES OVER EXTREME NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND CULLMAN COUNTY.
COMPARED TO NORMAL...THIS LEAVES THE AREA 12 TO 18 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE DRIEST AREAS...AND NEAR NORMAL IN THE FEW WETTER AREAS.

AT HUNTSVILLE...THE TOTAL SO FAR IN 2008 IS 24.99 INCHES. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS MORE THAN SEVEN INCHES HIGHER THAN THE SAME TIME LAST
YEAR...IT IS STILL THE SEVENTH DRIEST ON RECORD.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

A COUPLE OF SPOTTY SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHOALS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
SMALL ON AVERAGE...BUT ISOLATED SPOTS COULD SEE HEAVY RAIN.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FAY. IF THE REMNANTS OF FAY
AFFECT THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...HEAVY RAIN WOULD OCCUR...AND IT COULD
BE A DROUGHT BUSTER. BUT IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO SAY.

THE OUTLOOK FOR WEEK TWO...AUGUST 28TH THROUGH SEPTEMBER 3RD...
FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AREAWIDE. NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
A WEEK IN EARLY AUGUST IS ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

THE OUTLOOK FROM SEPTEMBER THROUGH NOVEMBER FAVORS EQUAL CHANCES OF
ABOVE NORMAL...BELOW NORMAL...OR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE LATEST SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...VALID THROUGH NOVEMBER...
INDICATES IMPROVEMENT OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. HOWEVER...THIS
DOES NOT IMPLY AN END TO THE DROUGHT.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

STREAMFLOWS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE GENERALLY LOW...BUT RIGHT NOW THEY
ARE EVEN LOWER. TRIBUTARY RIVERS ARE GENERALLY AT OR BELOW THE 10TH
PERCENTILE. BASEFLOW HAS BEEN LOW DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE
LONG-TERM DROUGHT. THE MAINSTEM TENNESSEE RIVER IS NEAR NORMAL.

LAKE LEVELS ARE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS ARE
BEAR CREEK LAKE...WHICH IS BEING HELD BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
CONSTRUCTION...AND LITTLE BEAR CREEK LAKE...WHICH WAS DROPPED TO A
LOWER LEVEL DURING AN INSPECTION EARLIER IN THE SUMMER AND HAS NOT
RECOVERED. SMITH LAKE IS ALSO ABOUT THREE FEET BELOW AVERAGE.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE VERY DRY. A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS BELOW THE 1ST PERCENTILE. THE REST OF SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA ARE BELOW
THE 20TH PERCENTILE. THE REST OF THE AREA IS BETWEEN THE 20TH AND
40TH PERCENTILE.

GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME STRAIN THOUGH THEY ARE
CERTAINLY IN BETTER SHAPE THAN AT THIS SAME TIME LAST YEAR. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT BOTH SOIL MOISTURE AND GROUNDWATER SHOW
LINGERING EFFECTS FROM DROUGHT THE LONGEST AND TAKE THE LONGEST TO
RECHARGE ONCE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE. THEREFORE...THEY ARE
IMPORTANT LONG-TERM INDICATORS.

THE OUTLOOK FOR RIVER AND LAKE LEVELS IS FOR LITTLE CHANGE FROM
CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM. IF FAY AFFECTS THE
AREA...RIVER AND LAKE LEVELS WOULD BE LIKELY TO INCREASE. LAKE
LEVELS ON TIMS FORD LAKE AND SMITH LAKE ARE LIKELY TO DECREASE
DURING THE NEXT WEEK.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THE NEXT SCHEDULED DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON
THURSDAY AUGUST 28TH. UPDATES WILL OCCUR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
DEPICTED IN THIS STATEMENT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES... /ALL LOWER CASE/

FOR MUCH MORE DROUGHT INFORMATION...INCLUDING LINKS TO MANY
DROUGHT INDICATORS...VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

FOR A TABLE OF PRECIPITATION DEFICITS...GO TO
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE/PRODUCTVIEW.PHP?PIL=PNS&SID=HUN
YOU MAY NEED TO CLICK ON THE PREVIOUS VERSIONS NUMBERS TO ACCESS THE
LATEST TABULAR INFORMATION.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

SOME DATA USED IN THIS STATEMENT WERE PROVIDED BY THE U.S.
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...COUNTY EXTENSION AGENTS...THE U.S.
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY...AND THE STATES
OF ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ON THE DROUGHT...CONTACT:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
320A SPARKMAN DRIVE
HUNTSVILLE AL 35805
PHONE: 256-890-8503
SR-HUN.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

ELLIOTT

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