Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Look at next week!


Snow and cold weather is showing up along the western side of the
Appalachians alll the way down into North Alabama in the early
morning hours of next Wednesday.


After the frontal passage, the coldest air of the season is poised
to sink into Alabama in one week.

Model madness

This is the time of the year model madness really gets into full gear. Nearly every day extreme weather predictions are predicted by the long range models. James Spann refers to model predictions over seven days out as "voodoland". I love that term. Almost always the models change from one run to the next that far out and specific forecasts over seven days in advance are very unreliable. Notice that I said "specific" forecasts. The GFS does give us some good clues and trends to look for in the long range. Consistency between model runs increases confidence too.

Wednesday November 7
So, what are we looking at now. The coldest air of the season will arrive this time next week over the Midwest extending down towards the Gulf Coast states. Temperatures in North Alabama very well might dip below the freezing point for the first time this season.

Saturday/Sunday November 10 and 11
On Saturday Nov 10 and Sunday the 11th the GFS has been advertising a big trough and storm system rolling through North Alabama. The latest output today seems to back off a bit and shows a band of lighter precipitation moving through here on the 11th. We need rain but I plan on taking the boys to the Alabama v MSU game in Starkville. Maybe rain would be appropriate if I get the chance to meet up with some weather nerds. It's just too early to say. I will keep an eye on it.

Wednesday November 14
Wow! Look at November 14. Strong storms are still showing up on the GFS in advance of a deep low pressure system. A heavy snow event is even shown for western Kentucky, Tennessee, and Arkansas. Pure voodoo, I know. The GFS has been showing this on a few runs now. Needless to say I have serious doubts about the heavy snow in the South. I do expect there will be something really interesting going on approximately two weeks from today. There will be plenty of time to watch this situation. November 15th has been a bad day for weather many times during the last 18 years, especially on November 15, 1989 in Huntsville. I have mentioned some about that here before.

Stay tuned!

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

My vehicle told me....

My car thermometer (which was probably not accurate) told me it was 34 and a message popped up on the information screen saying that I needed to be careful because there may be ice on the road. I don't know how the manufacturer sets those devices, but it was incorrect.

There was some patch fog between Vinemont and Decatur. The low in Vinemont was 37.8.

Weather legend...

I have mentioned people that have contributed greatly to the meteorological/weather community here before. Today I will mention Roy Leep, who worked for WTVT in Tampa, Florida from 1957 through 1997. I never had the opportunity to watch Mr. Leep do the weather, but he was interviewed recently on the weatherbrains.com netcast. If you are interested in hearing not only his story, but learning about the evolution of weather coverage, I highly recommend listening. There are also a couple of cool pages here and here about Mr. Leep and his history of forecasting during a time when the science of meteorology advanced exponentially.

Monday, October 29, 2007

Possible weather nerd tailgating function...

I am really jazzed to hear from Jason Simpson, meteorologist for ABC 33/40. He is from my general neck of the woods and is a huge MSU fan. He said there may be a big weather nerd tailgate which will feature BBQ from around the South. Either that or a trip to the famous Little Dooey. Sounds like tons of fun either way if it works out!

Saturday, October 27, 2007

Mobile County tornado

On Monday October 22, 2007, at 4:36 p.m., an EF1 tornado touched down near Coden and Bayou La Batre in southern Mobile County. A warning was issued by the Mobile NWS at 4:01. The tornado travelled approximately 3/4 of a mile. Approximately 20 residences were damaged, two of which were severely damaged and one was destroyed. No injuries were reported.

Storm Survey by Mobile NWS

Damage photos

Map of tornado track

Tornado touches down in Alabama Jackson Clarion Ledger
MOBILE, ALA. — Weather officials said Mobile County was hit by at least one tornado this afternoon. Steve Miller of the National Weather Service in Mobile told the Press-Register a tornado developed from a storm that moved over Dauphin Island, touched down near Coden and headed north.Bayou La Batre Police Chief John Joyner said a tornado overturned a trailer home near Irvington.

Powerful system spawns damaging tornado Mobile Press Register
However, weather officials in Mobile said they weren't able to confirm the report by the public of a tornado striking Tillman's Corner, and authorities hadn't found any damage there as of early evening, according to Jeff Garmon of the weather service in Mobile. He also said the twister reported in the Irvington area was the same one that struck near Coden. Weather officials began tracking the tornado as it moved over the west end of Dauphin Island.

Irvington picks up after tornado Mobile Press Register
The National Weather Service reported that the tornado, an EF1 twister with wind speeds between 86 mph and 109 mph, touched down south of Memory Lane and lifted three-quarters of a mile north near Roy E. Ray Airport. No injuries were reported. Morrison, who huddled with six others in the bathtub of his house when the tornado touched down, said he kicked open his front door after the walls began to vibrate.

Bayou La Batre, AL Tornado video



Stormchasers catch tornado on tape

More details on the 10-18-07 Pensacola Tornado

I have already posted a lot of information about the tornado that tracked across Pensacola, Florida on October 18, 2007. Here is some additional information. The tornado in downtown Pensacola caused some extensive damage to the roof of a Baptist Church as well as portions of Cordova Mall but there were no reported injuries at the Church and daycare center

Velocity radar loop from the Mobile NWS

Map of Pensacola tornado track

According to the National Weather Service, the tornado was rated an EF1 and caused four injuries. The tornado was on the ground from 10:10 until 10:25 a.m. and had a seven mile long path. Four structures were destroyed, 24 sustained major damage, and 58 had minor damage.

Mobile NWS Storm Survey

Video...

Thursday, October 25, 2007

A big weather week...

The past seven days have been very interesting to say the least. The big story in Alabama has been tornadoes. I will post some information about that soon when time is more available.

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Cold core upper low

It may look like we have a dying tropical system that has come inland over Louisiana and Mississippi, but we don't.

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Mobile County Tornado

Monday a tornado occurred in South Mobile County in the Irvington community, near Bayou La Batre. Several homes were damaged and a mobile home was overturned in the storm. No injuries were reported.

According to the Mobile Press-Register, "Weather officials began tracking the tornado as it moved over the west end of Dauphin Island. The parent storm passed over the Mississippi Sound and into the southern tip of the county, where observers spotted a wall cloud -- a rotating part of a thunderstorm extending from the cloud base and from which tornadoes can drop.
It appeared the tornado didn't actually touch down until reaching the Coden area, Garmon said."

In addition to the tornado, there were numerous reports of flooding and wind damage across the state yesterday.

Hale County tornado

A tornado was reported last night in the Hale County, Alabama community of Newbern. Hale County is south of Tuscaloosa. I will post more details soon. The latest reports say two people were injured.

From the NWS:
1052 PM TSTM WND DMG NEWBERN 32.59N 87.54W10/22/2007 HALE AL EMERGENCY MNGR
*** 1 INJ *** NUMEROUS TREES DOWN WITH SOME ON HOUSESALONG COUNTY ROAD 16. 15 HOUSES DAMAGED…3 TRAILERSOVERTURNED…NUMEROUS DOWNED POWER LINES. POSSIBLETORNADO.

The Birmingham NWS had warnings in place:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1044 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR…NORTHWESTERN PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA…EASTERN HALE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GREENSBORO…

* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT

* AT 1039 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ASEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
LANEVILLE…OR 14 MILES EAST OF DEMOPOLIS…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR…NEWBERN BY 1050 PM CDT…GREENSBORO BY 1055 PM CDT…MORGAN SPRINGS BY 1105 PM CDT…WATEROAK BY 1110 PM CDT…

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER AWORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT ISAVAILABLE…SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN ANINTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TOCOVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES…EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE ASUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE…LIE FLAT IN THENEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER…

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
959 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR…SOUTHWESTERN PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA…EASTERN MARENGO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA…THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LINDEN…SOUTH CENTRAL HALE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

* AT 956 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ASEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR OCTAGON…OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LINDEN…MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

More damage reports from JB Elliott at Alabamawx.com

Friday, October 19, 2007

Pensacola tornado photos

Cheri Mertins sent me some amazing photos she took of yesterday's tornado in Pensacola. She said, "There were two tornadoes that we got photos from. The first one occurred around 9:15. About half an hour later the second one hit, that is where I got the video." Thanks so much Cheri! Great job!











Starkville, MS tornado video (Near MSU)

Pensacola tornado video clips

Lots of storm reports yesterday



Again, it appears the SPC has done a very nice job with their mesoscale outlook. Three days in advance the outlook placed the greatest risk in the same area that received the most actual severe thunderstorm and tornado activity.

Sadly, for the second day in a row, there was a fatality caused by a tornado. Yesterday it was in Kalkaska, Michigan, according to the Grand Rapids Press.
Unusual mid-October storms crossed West Michigan on Thursday night and early
this morning, causing several tornado warnings, at least one fatality, damage and power outages.Sheriff's deputies in Kalkaska County confirmed one death caused by the storm system. Officials said a 29-year-old man victim died inside his house after strong winds took the structure down around him, according to WWTV-TV in Northern Michigan. Deputies also said a couple was taken to an area hospital after being trapped in another demolished house. National Weather Service officials in Gaylord believe as many as four tornadoes, plus a water spout over an area lake, may have touched down in Kalkaska, Cheboygan, Alpena and Mio.

Mark Sekelsky, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service at Kent Count Airport, called such a strong fall storm unusual, saying "it's not very often we get the ingredients this time of year."

October 18, 2007 storm photos

Here are a few more photos from my little storm spotting excursion yesterday afternoon.





The picture above was the storm that later produced a wall cloud near Moulton. I was looking west near the intersection of highways 36 and 157. just below the picture is a radar capture of the storm from the approximate time the above photo was taken. Dewdrop posted that radar image on our team site. My location is indicated by the red dot.



I took the picture above of a wall cloud near Moulton in Lawrence County. Dewdrop captured the radar image below the photo at the approximate time that I took the picture of the wall cloud.

~~~~~

The picture below was taken as the wall cloud was in the process of disappearing and the rotation was weakening.





On the way home I saw a rainbow!



Back at home, the boys and I were out in the yard and the atmosphere dried up considerably at around sunset, making for a colorful sky.

James Spann posted my pictures from Moulton, AL and many others on Alabamawx.com. Other pictures and video he posted include:

Pensacola tornado
Starkville, MS tornado
Pensacola tornado
Ralph, AL wall cloud (Tuscaloosa County)
Pensacola tornado video
Starkville tornado video

Thanks to storm chaser Jeff Gammons for mentioning my photos on his site!

Lawrence County, Alabama wall cloud



Big time THANK YOU to Dewdrop for her excellent radar support this afternoon.

I left Decatur and was headed south on I-65. I heard that we had just been placed under a tornado watch and there was a warning in Winston County. I called Dew who told me there was a storm showing strong rotation near Haleyville. I immediately exited West on Hwy 36, passing through Hartselle, heading west to intersect the storm. By the time I was just west of Hartselle, Dew updated me that the storm was dying but that there was another supercell near Hamilton. She suggested I hold tight and not give up. I headed west toward Danville and could see some cumulonimbus to my west southwest.

I called Dew backand she said there was a real strong cell headed toward Moulton. I turned northwest on Hwy 157 and the storm was moving rapidly northeastward. I saw the wall cloud pictured above between 3:40 and 3:45 near Moulton. The photo just doesn't do it justice. The low cloud base and trees made it very difficult too find a place to pull over and get a good shot. Besides that, the storm was moving so rapidly that it would move out of view quickly.

As I was travelling up 157 I saw a very distinct rotating wall cloud, with inflow. A few scud clouds seemed to be rotating into or around the wall cloud. For the most part, I was in a rain free area, southeast of the storm. There was heavy rain to the northeast of the wall cloud and a rain free base to the southwest. It died as fast as it was born.....

Dewdrop captured some radar images and posted them on our team blog.

Thursday, October 18, 2007

Two Fatalities in Missouri

Sad news from Missouri:

2 dead in Missouri storm USA Today
PARIS, Mo. — Two residents of rural northeast Missouri were killed early Thursday when high winds — perhaps a tornado — struck their mobile home.
Kent Ensor, 44, and Kristy Secrease, 25, died when winds pummeled the home near Paris, Mo., a town of about 1,500 residents 55 miles northeast of Columbia. The Missouri State Highway Patrol said the bodies were found 400 feet from where the mobile home was sitting.
National Weather Service meteorologist Scott Truett said there have been reports that the winds were from a tornado, but the weather service has not yet confirmed that.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK


...excerpts from today's outlook...

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007
VALID 181300Z - 191200Z


...SYNOPSIS... LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT AFFECTED

THE PLNS/OZARKS YESTERDAY WILL MOVE NE ACROSS

THE UPR GRT LKS LATER TODAY AS UPSTREAM SPEED MAX

NOW OVER THE CO/NM BORDER REDEVELOPS E ACROSS

THE SRN PLNS TODAY...AND INTO THE MID/LWR MS VLY

TONIGHT.


BREADTH OF WARM SECTOR...60-70 KT DEEP SWLY SHEAR

AND QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW SUGGEST GOOD

LIKELIHOOD FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FOR PERHAPS

A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE STORMS

MERGE INTO BROKEN LINES. STRONG LOW LVL SPEED

SHEAR AND LOW LCLS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW

STRONG TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH WIND AND

HAIL...DESPITE LESS THAN OPTIMAL TIME OF DAY. THE

STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR HIGH

WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY

FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE LWR TN VLY.


...GULF CST STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD... A BROAD

AREA OF LOW LVL WAA WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF MS/

AL AND WRN GA AND UPR TN VLY THROUGH THE PERIOD

AS DEEP WSW FLOW PREVAILS ON SERN SIDE OF

EVOLVING CNTRL U.S. TROUGH. VERY RICH BOUNDARY

LYR MOISTURE AND LOW LVL VEERING PROFILES MAY

SUPPORT STORMS THAT OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP LOW

LVL ROTATION. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE THIS

AFTN AS HEATING BOOSTS SFC-BASED INSTABILITY...AND

INVOF WEAK INVERTED TROUGH NOW ALONG THE AL/MS

BORDER...WHERE LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE

MAXIMIZED. WHILE DEEP SHEAR WILL BE WEAK

RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER NW...IT WILL BE

SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/

POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH A CONDITIONAL THREAT

FOR TORNADOES.

From the NWS Huntsville...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
520 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-181830-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-
MORGAN-MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-
FRANKLIN TN-520 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THIS
AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA...AND TONIGHT OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO PUMP WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.

AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES TODAY...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE LIKELIEST LOCATION FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
STEERED QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 40 MPH. THESE
STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...
PRODUCING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS POSING A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE FRONT AND
STORM THREAT SHOULD PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...CROSSING THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY 5 AM...
AND THEN PUSHING OUT OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TENNESSEE DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS.

RESIDENTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE
UPDATED ON THE DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. GREAT UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT. AT THIS
TIME...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL MAY BE REQUIRED.

$$

KDW

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Outlook for tomorrow evening...

Possible tornado in Hattiesburg, MS

From the NWS Jackson...

5 miles north of Hattiesburg...STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO HOUSE...TREES DOWN...SECTIONS OF HIGHWAY 59 CLOSED DUE TO DOWNED TREES. REPORTED BY HATTIESBURG EOC. (JAN)

Another cool new site

Here is the "Interactive Tornado Map" from Weatherunderground.com.

Latest on severe wx threat

From HSV NWS afternoon HWO...

THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS A BIT HIGHER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHEN
A BROKEN SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH REGION ALONG
A COLD FRONT. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
LATE EVENING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI …AND WORK ITS WAY EAST
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS…BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

At 7:18 this evening the HSV NWS issued this HWO...

INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY
WHICH MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF THESE STORMS BECOMING
SEVERE.

THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS A BIT HIGHER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHEN A BROKEN
SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH REGION ALONG A COLD FRONT.
THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
AND WORK ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

SPC Mesoanalysis Page


The above graphic is the Significant Tornado Parameter Index. Most "significant" tornadoes (F2 or greater) are associated with values greater than 1. Notice that values in eastern OK and TX and western AR and LA are currently greater than 2. In some isolated areas values are greater than 3. It could be a rough evening in this region.

Latest on severe wx threat


Day One (Wednesday 10/17/07) Tornado Outlook SPC


Day One outlook (today Wed 10/17/07) from the SPC

Excerpt from SPC Outlook:

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...

--A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH A THREAT OF STRONG...LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES–

THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY WHILE
MOVING / DEVELOPING NEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MO VALLEY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES.

MORE SIGNIFICANT... SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF EARLIER STORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN KS SWD/SEWD ALONG DRY LINE INTO WRN/CNTRL OK AND FAR N-CNTRL TX. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODERATE TO STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A HIGH LIKLIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG AND LONG-TRACKED. THIS
IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE FROM SERN KS AND ERN OK INTO AR AND SRN MO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WHERE DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN ADVANCE OF PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

ELSEWHERE...TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID SOUTH WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS RETURNING NWD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES /SOME STRONG
SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES... LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL.


Day 2 Outlook (Thhursday) from the SPC

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Updates on the severe wx threat...

My main questions about this potential event (devil's advocate
against the potential threat):

1. Will directional shear be sufficient to produce supercells
in the South since the Low pressure center will be so far to
the north?

2. Will instability be sufficient to sustain severe weather
since there is expected to be a lot of heavy rainfall in
advance of the trough?

3. You have to think about climatology, right? This is October.

---

From this afternoon's HWO from the NWS Huntsville...

THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.... AT THIS TIME
...SHALLOW SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT LOOKS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL ARRIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT....CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.

---

12z NAM shows the low down to 980mbs

18z NAM shows less instability with pockets of up to 2000
CAPE in Eastern MS/Western AL at 18z Thursday.

Rain


It was great to have some nice rain at the house for a change this evening!

Alabama's beaches


Nice rainshaft and shadow near Gulf Shores, AL last Tuesday evening


Sunset last Wednesday in Gulf Shores, AL


Gulf Shores, AL sunset last Wednesday


Sea oats on the beach between Orange Beach and Perdido Bay


The Flora-Bama, which was flattened by Ivan, is making a comeback


The sun, the waves, and birds made for a peaceful, easy feeling...


Rainshaft just South of Gulf Shores, AL in the Gulf of Mexico

Photos from the Shrimp Festival

James Spann posted some of my photos here on Alabamawx.com.

Severe weather possible Thursday


A trough is forecast to move across the middle part of the US and become more negatively-tilted with time. If this occurs it will enhance the possibility of wind shear. Preceding the trough will be increasingly warm and moist air flowing northward from the Gulf of Mexico. This will contribute to increased instability in the South by Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center currently places most of the Midwest and South under a slight risk for severe weather on Thursday. Much of Illinois and Indiana have already been placed under a moderate risk. Forecaster Goss at the SPC said in this morning's "Day 3 Convective Outlook" that the moderate risk area might "be expanded to include areas as far south as the Gulf Coast states in later forecasts."

I will be posting much more later as the situation unfolds.

AFD From the NWS Huntsville this morning:
.LONGER TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
FOCUS WILL BE ON THE POTENTIALLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
EVENT WED NIGHTINTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE SPC DAY
3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK INCLUDES A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS...AND WE CANNOT DISAGREE AT THIS POINT.
WE HAVE
NOW SEEN FAIRLY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
INPROGGING A SIGNIFICANT TROF AND COLD FRONT INTO A
FAIRLY MOIST...UNSTABLE AND HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT

THURSDAY.WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG LLJ (UPWARDS OF 40-50KT)
PROVIDING HIGH MAGNITUDE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE REGION. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER JET
ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROF THAT GENERATES
A STRONG SFC CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLICE INTO TROPICAL AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THURSDAY EVENING.
DEEP
LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR QUITE
FAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN SUPERCELLS
. AREA WILL BE
BENEATH RRQ OF 100-120KT UPPER JET MAX. EXTENSIVE
SHRA AND ELEVATED TSRA SHOULD BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NE.
THE GFS DEVELOPS ANOTHER GULF WAVE WHICH MOVES
RAPIDLY NE THRU AL INTO GA THURSDAY MORNING...
WHICH COULD FURTHER ENHANCE PRECIPITATION...BUT
STILL UNSURE IF THIS WILL MANIFEST. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW EARLY THURSDAY GIVEN
MOIST LAPSE RATES. THE AIRMASS WILL BE TROPICAL
EXHIBITING A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT. AS
THE WARM SECTOR SPREADS N...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REFLECT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. USING THE SOUNDING TOOLKIT
FOR KMSL(MUSCLE SHOALS)...
GFS OUTPUT REFLECTS WARM
SECTOR SB-CAPES NEAR 1400J/KG....0-1KM SRH NEAR 100
M2/S2 BY LATE AFTERNOON
. THIS PER FORECAST TEMP IN
THE L80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE U60S...BUT WILL HINGE
GREATLY ON THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS THAT MAY EXIST.
15/21ZSREF PROBABILITIES OF 1000+ CAPE EXCEED 60 PCNT
BY 21Z IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THE NAM IS SHOWING "GRID
SCALE" CELLS/ STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ALONG
THE MS RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD
ADVANCE RAPIDLY NE INTO THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN 03-
06Z
. THIS WITHIN AN AREA OF SIGSVR NUMBERS PROGGED
AT 30000-40000 M3/S3. THIS AREA SHIFTS E THROUGH THE
TN VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING...WITH VALUES DROPPING
TO THE 20000-30000 RANGE.
SUPERCELLS CERTAINLY LOOK
TO BE A THREAT.TORNADO THREAT INCREASES AS WELL
GIVEN THE COMBO OF A HIGH LOW LEVELSHEAR AND
MODERATE LOW LEVEL CAPE ENVIRONMENTS
. HOWEVER
TIME OF DAY MAY LIMIT THIS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
BY 00Z AT KMSL...THE GFS SOUNDING SHOWS A 0-1KM SRH OF
~180 M2/S2. HIGHEST POPS...IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY...WILL
BE PLACED THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
AREA RESIDENTS...MEDIA...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND
SKYWARN NETWORKS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THIS WEATHER SITUATION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THAT NOTE...WEDNESDAY IS FALL SEVERE WEATHER
AWARENESS DAY IN ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE...SERVING
AS A GOOD REMINDER TO BEPREPARED.

Monday, October 15, 2007

A week ago tonight...


NWS Birmingham


On my way to the beach I saw this cumulus cloud as I drove through Shelby County, Alabama, south of Birmingham. It was growing and some rain was beginning to fall. I took this photo across from the NWS Birmingham and was rebuked by a man in a fuel truck who stopped and said that by taking pictures near an airport I was "...under suspision of conducting terrorist activities." Give me a break, please...


Last week I had the priviledge to travel to Orange Beach, Alabama for a professional conference. On Monday evening I took this photo of a sunset in a rural area southeast of Clanton in Chilton, County, Alabama. This photo was taken near the geographic center of the state.

Friday, October 12, 2007

National Shrimp Festival


Photo couresy of ABC 33/40 Gulf Shores SkyCam

The weather was perfect for this event. I will post more later. It is down to the low 60's here on the beach as I hed to the bed t 1:45 a.m.

From James Spann's Seven Day Planner:
SHRIMP FESTIVAL: We have sure enjoyed watching the thousands of folks down on the Alabama Gulf coast on the ABC 33/40 SKYCAM atop the Phoenix All-Suites in Gulf Shores; this is the weekend for the annual Shrimp Festival, and our camera gives us a perfect view of all the festivities. If you are headed down to the coast for the weekend, the weather will be excellent with sunny warm days and clear pleasant nights. Afternoon highs in Gulf Shores will be in the 80 to 83 degree range each day through Sunday, with morning lows in the 60s. Needless to say, there is no chance of rain. The food sure looks great, and we have noticed that live bands are playing nightly on a big stage set up in the parking lot of the Gulf Shores Public Beach.

I should post about some of my adventures later.......

Thursday, October 11, 2007

Perfect day at the beach


This was the view a few moments ago from the ABC 33/40 Skycam on the roof of the Phoenix All Suites Hotel adjacent to the public beach here in Gulf Shores, Alabama. The Shrimp Festival begins this evening. Unfortunately, I have another obligation, which is to attend an awards banquet for my professional association. Maybe I can swing by there afterwards. James Spann, in his afternoon video update mentions the festival and the weather down here.

I have been in Gulf Shores since Monday and the weather has been fantastic! Temperatures were unseasonably warm Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. This, combined with the warm water of the Gulf makes for a perfect day at the beach. Unfortunately, Tuesday and Wednesday I was stuck in meetings until the evening. My friend and co-worker Mike brought his wife with him who has enjoyed reading and soaking up the rays all day every day this week. Good for her as she deserved a break. I'm single, so I don't have the chance to make that opportunity available for anyone right now. I guess it's OK to laugh about it though!

I have taken more photos this week than I would prefer to admit but I have no way of posting them. I will pick out some of the best for posting later. I am about to avoid the crowds here in Gulf Shores and drive over to Fort Morgan. Thanks for reading my ramblings...

One more thing....I would not mind at all making this my home when I retire!

Tuesday, October 09, 2007

Wx Surprise!




Unexpected weather action today in Gulf Shores, Alabama. I was sitting on the beach this afternoon, enjoying the waves, birds, and clouds. I turn around and what do I see? Cumulonimbus! I have my camera down here with me but I have no way to post my photos at the moment. A big THANKS to my friend Dewdrop for radar support and her post on our team site.

Monday, October 08, 2007

Hot!

Sunday our high was 92. Today's high was 90.

I will post more when I get back from my trip.

Saturday, October 06, 2007

Hot day in Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa



It was a great day in Tuscaloosa! It was unseasonably hot and muggy for October. The breezy conditions and occasional cloud that blocked the sun provided occasional relief. The above picture was taken from the Amelia Gayle Gorgas Library. I spent many hours, days, weeks, months, and years studying here. Not only did I study what I was supposed to study, I was also known to socialize and, o.k., I'll admit it, spend countless hours on the microfilm machines doing Alabama weather history research for the book I still haven't written.



It was a hot day in the stands at Bryant Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa. At the end of the first quarter at 2:53 p.m. the temperature was 88 and the dewpoint was 67 under partly cloudy skies.

At my house...
Low 66
High 88
Sun Oct 7

Friday, October 05, 2007

Summer-like weather continues

Vinemont, AL -
Low 68
High 85
Fri Oct 5

Chasing sunrises and sunsets...


6:20 p.m. tonight across from Vinemont Middle School


6:58 a.m. this morning near Folsom Field Airport


6:22 p.m. last night across from Vinemont Middle School

Tuesday, October 02, 2007

Today's weather


Vinemont, AL -
Low 56.1
High 88.3
No rain, again...
Tue Oct 2

This was an image of the sunrise this morning at the intersection of AL Highway 157 and US 31

Monday, October 01, 2007

Upcoming tropical concerns...

According to James Spann at Alabamawx.com,
"The NAM and the Canadian develop Tropical Storm Noel in the Gulf of Mexico at mid-week. The Canadian moves the system in the middle Texas coast, between Galveston and Corpus Christi, early Saturday. If something does form down there, most likely this is the correct solution; it should remain well to the south of the Alabama coast....the Canadian develops another system east of Miami over the weekend, and has it very close to Key West by Sunday as a major hurricane. This one is headed for the Gulf as well. But, the Canadian has been way off the mark at times this season, so no need to go hog wild worrying about this at this time."

Sneak preview


It looks like there is the potential for a major weather change early next week in North Alabama. A few quotes from NWS discussions....

First, from the Birmingham NWS:
"LOOKING FOR A LATE WEEKEND FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA AS A DECENT MID-LATITUDE SEASONAL SYSTEM SWINGS ACROSS THE MID RIVER VALLEYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BARE WATCHING AS ANY FURTHER SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT COULD TRANSLATE INTO SOME POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. AT THIS TIME FEEL WE ARE GOING TO BE OK WITH THE ROUGHER STUFF REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA."

Check this out from the Memphis NWS:
"SUNDAY AND BEYOND...A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY BE IN STORE ACCORDING TO LATEST MODELS. A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY OR MONDAY AND BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES... PERHAPS BRINGING THE FIRST SHOT OF COOLER AIR THIS AUTUMN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE COLD FRONT FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY AND STRONG WINDS SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL. FOR NOW...DID NOT ALTER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MUCH ON SUNDAY."

Autumn is definitely here

It hit 49.3 in Vinemont this morning!