Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Updates on the severe wx threat...

My main questions about this potential event (devil's advocate
against the potential threat):

1. Will directional shear be sufficient to produce supercells
in the South since the Low pressure center will be so far to
the north?

2. Will instability be sufficient to sustain severe weather
since there is expected to be a lot of heavy rainfall in
advance of the trough?

3. You have to think about climatology, right? This is October.

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From this afternoon's HWO from the NWS Huntsville...

THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.... AT THIS TIME
...SHALLOW SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT LOOKS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL ARRIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT....CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.

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12z NAM shows the low down to 980mbs

18z NAM shows less instability with pockets of up to 2000
CAPE in Eastern MS/Western AL at 18z Thursday.

2 comments:

Rick said...

Watch the trends as the system comes across. It will answer all your questions. I think you guys will have a decent shot at something. you are a lot closer to the low than we are and they are predicting severe weather out of my WFO... Be ready

Mike said...

I will be watching! We will need a lot of sun tomorrow to help the atmosphere recover from the heavy rain expected tonight and early tomorrow a.m. I expect a broken line of storms to roll through here, some with rotation.