Thursday, October 18, 2007

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK


...excerpts from today's outlook...

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007
VALID 181300Z - 191200Z


...SYNOPSIS... LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT AFFECTED

THE PLNS/OZARKS YESTERDAY WILL MOVE NE ACROSS

THE UPR GRT LKS LATER TODAY AS UPSTREAM SPEED MAX

NOW OVER THE CO/NM BORDER REDEVELOPS E ACROSS

THE SRN PLNS TODAY...AND INTO THE MID/LWR MS VLY

TONIGHT.


BREADTH OF WARM SECTOR...60-70 KT DEEP SWLY SHEAR

AND QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW SUGGEST GOOD

LIKELIHOOD FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FOR PERHAPS

A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE STORMS

MERGE INTO BROKEN LINES. STRONG LOW LVL SPEED

SHEAR AND LOW LCLS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW

STRONG TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH WIND AND

HAIL...DESPITE LESS THAN OPTIMAL TIME OF DAY. THE

STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR HIGH

WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY

FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE LWR TN VLY.


...GULF CST STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD... A BROAD

AREA OF LOW LVL WAA WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF MS/

AL AND WRN GA AND UPR TN VLY THROUGH THE PERIOD

AS DEEP WSW FLOW PREVAILS ON SERN SIDE OF

EVOLVING CNTRL U.S. TROUGH. VERY RICH BOUNDARY

LYR MOISTURE AND LOW LVL VEERING PROFILES MAY

SUPPORT STORMS THAT OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP LOW

LVL ROTATION. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE THIS

AFTN AS HEATING BOOSTS SFC-BASED INSTABILITY...AND

INVOF WEAK INVERTED TROUGH NOW ALONG THE AL/MS

BORDER...WHERE LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE

MAXIMIZED. WHILE DEEP SHEAR WILL BE WEAK

RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER NW...IT WILL BE

SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/

POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH A CONDITIONAL THREAT

FOR TORNADOES.

1 comment:

Dewdrop said...

Let me know if you would like some data support. I will be home tonight later.