Monday, February 16, 2009

Storms in the Forecast for Wednesday


Storm Prediction Center Day 3 Outlook

Last Wednesday February 11, a storm system brought gusty winds to North Alabama and it is beginning to appear that this coming Wednesday February 18 might be stormy as well. At the moment it does not appear to be a classic setup for severe weather but it is too early to rule that out.

As is usually the case this time of the year, the amount of instability will be the big question mark. Helicity values and the jet stream will be strong. Instability values may be higher than last week as well. The main issue is whether they will phase up together.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed Alabama in a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday. They are particularly concerned about the southern half of the state.

Here is an excerpt from their outlook.

DEGREE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS CONTINGENT ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR. ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN VERY STRONG KINEMATIC PROFILES WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING STRUCTURES
WITH ANY SURFACE BASED DEEP CONVECTION. POTENTIAL
FOR A MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COULD STILL POSE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR A
HIGHER END SEVERE EVENT.



Day 3 Probabilistic from the SPC

I do not have any specific answers other than this will definitely be a day to be weather aware.

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