Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Larger Moderate Risk Area


SPC Day One Tornado Risk Graphic


SPC Day One Convective Outlook

Excerpt from Latest Public Severe Weather Outlook:
   COMBINATION OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND
EXPANDING WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG...POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES.
THIS TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE GREATEST OVER SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

Excerpt from the Latest Day One Convective Outlook:
   GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY
LINE IN CENTRAL OK TO CENTRAL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON /AFTER 21Z/...
GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING OF THE SLY LLJ /50+ KT/ FROM E TX/LA TO ERN KS/MO WILL
RESULT IN LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG/SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AS STRONG UPPER FORCING WITH THE TROUGH
SPREADS INTO THE SRN PLAINS. IF CONFIDENCE BECOMES GREATER IN THE
TRACK OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW...PORTIONS OF THE MODERATE RISK
AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A HIGH RISK.

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1 comment:

Dewdrop said...

This is terrific SDS treatment.