Sunday, February 01, 2009

Note to self....

Looks like this "snow event" has busted. Not that I predicted any specific amounts, but all of the areas that were projected to have at least a chance of snow now will be lucky to get anything. The models had been consistent before I did that post. As soon as I posted it, they flip-flopped, taking the low further south and east. It has been that way consistently since I posted. Glad I didn't predict accumulations, but I obviously got a little too excited too early.

I really blew this one. I tried to be cautious and wait until I saw enough model consistency. I saw over two days (nine runs) that were fairly consistent. The main problem was that they were between 150 and 102 hours in advance. That reinforces another lesson: Wait until the "event" is closer to say anything, if I don't have to. The only exception is I will say, "for what it's worth", "x" day will be a day to watch. Sorry....

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2 comments:

Anonymous said...

That's why they call it a "watch", no guarantees. I'm glad it didn't affect any Super Bowl parties, although my Steelers often benefit from adverse weather.

Bill

Dewdrop said...

Hey, Mike. Don't be so hard on yourself... happens to the best of us!