Wednesday, May 07, 2008

New Day 2 Outlook From the SPC





This is the latest update from the Storm Prediction Center for tomorrow. This is the "Day 2" Convective Outlook valid for Thursday May, 8, 2008. I am a big "fan" of those folks as I believe they do a really good job with these outlooks. Tomorrow is certainly a day everyone in Alabama and much of the South will need to stay close to a source of weather information.

   SPC AC 071728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2008

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SERN
STATES THROUGH MID ATLANTIC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER WRN KS...

...SYNOPSIS...

LOW AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS
ENEWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES...REACHING THE CAROLINAS AND MID
ATLANTIC THURSDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY DURING THE DAY AND
INTO VA OVERNIGHT. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD...BUT
TRAILING PARTS OF FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TX
IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS. THIS
WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN WILL ADVANCE EAST INTO
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY A
COLD FRONT.

...SERN STATES...

STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS AND TN
VALLEY REGIONS WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ATTENDANT STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT AN
AXIS OF LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS NEWD THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR DURING THE DAY. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AREAS MULTI-LAYER
CLOUDS. THIS ALONG WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY
LIMIT INSTABILITY IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY WITH NWD EXTENT INTO
THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. HOWEVER...ENOUGH CLOUD BREAKS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SERN STATES TO SUPPORT
MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. THE STRONG
MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO 45+ KT BULK SHEAR. VEERING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN WARM
SECTOR SOUTH OF THE EWD ADVANCING SURFACE LOW MAY LIMIT SIZE OF THE
LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SOMEWHAT. ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
AND LINES WITH BOWING STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND...HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...CAROLINAS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC...

THE 12Z WEDNESDAY RAOB DATA SHOWED ONLY A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WITH
LOW 60S DEWPOINTS NEAR THE SURFACE ACROSS COASTAL FL AND SC. AS A
RESULT DEWPOINTS HAVE RECENTLY MIXED DOWN IN THE 50S IN THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF STREAM CONTINUES TO
MODIFY...AND PERSISTENT SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY ADVECT LOW
60S DEWPOINTS NWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND PARTS OF VA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH DIABATIC HEATING WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE
FROM 800-1200 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN THIS REGION DURING THE DAY WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. THE KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN THIS REGION DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITHIN ZONE
OF ASCENT JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DEEP SHEAR AROUND 40
KT AND INCREASINGLY LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WOULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL LEWP
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND.


...WRN KS AREA...

SELY UPSLOPE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LEE LOW WILL ADVECT
LOWER-MID 50S DEWPOINTS INTO ERN CO AND WRN KS BENEATH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IN
VICINITY OF THE LEE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT HIGH BASED
SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY
CONGEAL INTO AN MCS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.

..DIAL.. 05/07/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1733Z (12:33PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
I am also including a look at the significant tornado composite index maps for 4 and 7 p.m. tomorrow:

2 comments:

Cookeville Weather Guy said...

Nice post Mike...I referenced it on my blog a bit ago with a mobile post! :)

http://www.cookevilleweatherguy.com/2008/05/latest-information-for-thursday.html

Mike said...

Cool...I'll check it out. Thanks, Mike