Friday, May 02, 2008

Friday lunchtime updates


Latest Outlook from SPC is out and they are highlighting eastern Arkansas.

Here is an excerpt from the 9:22 a.m. area forecast discussion from the NWS Huntsville:
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN WILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADD'L WARM SECTOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. COMBINATION OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND CAPE WILL
BE MAXIMIZED TO OUR WEST TODAY...AND THIS IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE
EHI PROGS FROM THE RUC AND NMM-WRF. HOWEVER...THE LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE NORTH/EAST THROUGH THE AFTN WITH
CAPE VALUES RISING INTO THE 1-1.5 KJ/KG RANGE IN OUR FAR WRN
COUNTIES LATE. THIS COUPLED WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR COULD
RESULT IN SOME ROTATING CELLS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65.
Things will really get cranking up in Eastern Arkansas during the next few hours. Here is an excerpt from the SPC mesoscale discussion for this area:
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT INHIBITION FOR THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MID/UPPER 60S DEW POINTS...TO THE
SOUTH/EAST OF THIS ZONE...HAS ALREADY BECOME WEAK...WITH
CAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. DISCRETE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST BENEATH BROADLY DIFLUENT
CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...LOW- LEVEL SHEAR
NEAR A 60 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET CORE...NOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST OF LITTLE ROCK TOWARD THE CONFLUENCE OF THE
MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVERS...IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC
ACTIVITY. ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.


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