Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Day 2 Outlook by the SPC




...TN VLY EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...
ALTHOUGH THE UPR WAVE WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...
A BELT OF 60+ KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE
ACROSS AN IMPROVING WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE TN VLY
THURSDAY AFTN. TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY IN
THE PERIOD OVER THE MID-SOUTH THAT MAY BE PRODUCING
HAIL OR HIGH INDS. DOWNSTREAM...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL ADVECT MID-60S DEW POINTS NWD INTO ERN MS/AL.
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HEAT
CONSIDERABLY AND GIVEN RESIDUAL STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES...ABOUT 2000 J/KG MLCAPE WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AS A RESULT...TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY BY
EARLY AFTN WELL-AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. WLY 0-6KM SHEAR
OF 40-45 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...THOUGH TORNADOES WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

2 comments:

mmmiklik said...

Good Morning Mike. Well tommorrow again still looks good. I wonder if it will hold together as it moves East past B'ham area toward my neck of the woods, and what the approx. time frame will be for my area. I will be away from my desk for most of the day, but will check back.. My folks have a Dr. appt in B'ham so I told them to take there cell so they can call me for updates.

Mike said...

Hi Michelle. I think it will hold together. It is impossible to pinpoint what will happen where as you know. But all of N&C AL looks to be under the gun somewhere between 11 and 9.

I am interested to see if the SPC goes moderate or high risk with this one.