Tuesday, December 09, 2008

Tornado Threat Increasing in South Alabama


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2430 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0615 PM CST TUE DEC 09 2008 AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA THROUGH SE MS AND SW AL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 100015Z - 100145Z THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM SE LA THROUGH SE MS AND SW AL COULD DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY WITH TIME. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. A STRONG 50-60 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM EWD ADVANCING POSITIVELY UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS NEAR COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. THE 00Z RAOB FROM NEW ORLEANS SHOWS MODERATE SURFACE BASE INSTABILITY AND NO CAP OF CONSEQUENCE. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE ZONE OF LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE NATURE OF THE INITIATING MECHANISM AHEAD OF THE LINE SUGGEST SOME DISCRETE STORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES.

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