Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Moderate risk to our northwest


PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OH AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OH AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD FROM KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM ILLINOIS TO MICHIGAN IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...AND AN INTENSE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD FROM TEXAS AND LOUISIANA TO ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI AS OF LATE MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK COMPARED TO MANY SPRING STORM SYSTEMS...BUT IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS IN A BAND ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

VERY STRONG WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND STORM MOTIONS EXCEEDING 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BECOME QUITE WEAK BY EARLY TONIGHT...THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE INTENSE COLD FRONT.

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