Friday, August 17, 2007

Dean update


Here is an excerpt from this morning's advisory on Dean from the NHC:


BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 800 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

...DEAN POUNDING MARTINIQUE AND DOMINICA...HEADING FOR THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA... MARTINIQUE... DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST OR 50 MILES...80 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MARTINIQUE.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD TAKE THE CENTER OF DEAN AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. FORT-DE-FRANCE ON MARTINIQUE RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 87 MPH...143 KM/HR...WHILE DOMINICA REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 64 MPH...104 KM/HR.

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. ACROSS PUERTO RICO...STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

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