Saturday, April 14, 2007

MESOSCALE UPDATE...from Mobile NWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1148 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO SAY THAT THINGS ARE MOVING
ALONG "TIMING-WISE" ABOUT AS EXPECTED. LATEST WFO
MOBILE ALABAMA LAPS MESOSCALE ANALYSIS...WHICH
ASSIMILATES LOCAL MESONET SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...
SHOWS THAT ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE
RAPIDLY INVOF WHERE SFC HEATING IS OCCURRING ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF I-10. SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO MID
70F RANGE OVER INTERIOR SW AL AND SC ALABAMA TO
NEAR 80F ALONG THE COAST. THIS IS RESULTING IN
SBCAPES APPROACHING 2000 J KG-1. SR HEL FIELD IS STILL
MEAGER (MOSTLY < 150 M2 S-2) WITH HIGHEST SR
HELICITIES RIGHT ALONG LINE (BEING INDICATED BY
MESOSCALE PRESSURE TROUGH). LOOKS LIKE WE`LL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR STORMS MOVING TO RIGHT OF MEAN WIND
TO INGEST HIGHER SRH VALUES IN THE SHORT-TERM. IT
IS ALSO APPARENT THAT ATMOSPHERE EAST OF I-65
IS CAPPED FOR THE MOMENT. WHEN THIS BREAKS...
IT COULD BE A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION AND
SUPPORT A WAVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AHEAD
OF THE TSTM LINE CURRENTLY MOVG THROUGH
INTERIOR SE MS.

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