Thursday, March 25, 2010

Latest on Severe Potential


Excerpt from the SPC....
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...A STRONG DRY SLOT OVER TX WILL ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO MS/WESTERN TN. A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE IN THIS REGION WILL HELP TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS WITH POCKETS OF MUCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY 21Z OVER NORTHERN MS AND WESTERN TN...SPREADING RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO MIDDLE TN/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AL/NORTHWEST GA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THE ATTENDANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
Excerpt from NWS HUN HWO...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF ANAPPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS ANISOLATED TORNADO. APPROXIMATE TIMING FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER THREATIS 2 PM TO 6 PM IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA...BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8 PM NEAR INTERSTATE 65...AND 6 PM TO 10 PM FOR NORTHEAST ALABAMA ANDSOUTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SINCE THE STORMS WOULD OCCUR DURINGAFTERNOON HEATING...LOCATIONS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 HAVE A HIGHERTHREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
Excerpt from NWS HUN AFD
PARAMETERS ALIGNBETTER BY THE AFTN. THERMAL/MOISTURE RIDGE PRECEDING THE FRONTCOMBINES WITH THE COLD CORE ALOFT TO CREATE WEAK INSTABILITY. IF ANYCLEARING IS REALIZED...THE INSTABILITY OBVIOUSLY BECOMES MUCH MOREOF A FACTOR. SHEAR WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT FROM THE VERY HIGH MORNINGVALUES...BUT WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A DMG WIND THREAT...AND IFTHE 06Z NAM IS TO BELIEVED...TORNADOES AS WELL. AS USUAL FOR THISTIME OF YEAR...INSTABILITY IS THE KEY.
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