Sunday, June 14, 2009

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1111
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 406...

VALID 141545Z - 141715Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 406
CONTINUES.

THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE INTO AFTERNOON WITH ORGANIZING BOW ECHO. A NEW WW MAY
BECOME NECESSARY BY 17Z.

BOW ECHO CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE THIS MORNING WITH LEADING EDGE OF
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM LAUDERDALE...COLBERT AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES IN NWRN AL TO LOWNDES COUNTY MS AS OF 1530Z. MCS MOTION
HAD INCREASED TO AROUND 42 KT. IMMEDIATE INFLOW AIR MASS HAS WARMED
TO 80-85 F AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F...ENVIRONMENT
IS MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF
2000-3000 J/KG /PER MODIFICATION OF 12Z BHM SOUNDING/.

FIELD OF GROWING CUMULUS FROM VICINITY OF BOW ECHO SEWD THROUGH CSG
IS LIKELY DELINEATING THE AXIS OF STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION AND
CONVERGENCE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IT IS LIKELY THAT SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO FORWARD-PROPAGATE SEWD ALONG THIS AXIS. LATEST VWP DATA
FROM MEM SHOWS A MARKED STRENGTHENING IN ZONAL FLOW IN THE 2-5 KM
AGL LAYER /CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER OBS AT LIT/ WHICH WILL SERVE TO
ENHANCE THE REAR INFLOW JET INTO SYSTEM WITH A LIKELY INCREASE IN
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

..MEAD.. 06/14/2009

1 comment:

Dewdrop said...

Tell me you were back home yesterday for the big day...