Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Ongoing Iron Bowl Predictions....

Noon update Wednesday 11/26..... Brian Peters notes that the 12z run of the GFS is in the house and it is trying to push some moisture toward Tuscaloosa around game time Saturday. There is also a hint of snow for Monday. Nothing is carved in stone yet! Let's get a few more model runs in before getting too confident with the forecast.

---

On Wednesday morning I continue to see no reason to change my forecast for the Iron Bowl. After some rain on Friday, Saturday will feature temperatures in the mid to upper 50's and rain continues to look unlikely. The GFS has been rather consistent the past few days. James Spann posted about the models and his forecast yesterday afternoon here.

---

It's Monday morning and time to give my first forecast for the Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa. After some overnight showers on Friday, Saturday will begin cloudy. By game time temperatures will be in the mid 50's and rain is unlikely. --- Updated Monday 11/24/08 at 5:11 a.m.

---

Note: This is a continuing series of "predictions" of the weather for Saturday 11/29/08 at Noon CT based on output of the GFS model. It will be an interesting case study to see how the model handles this event each day.

Wednesday 11/26/08 Update:

No significant change on Wednesday morning's GFS run.

Tuesday 11/25/08 Update:

No need to change the forecast, but rain is looking increasingly likely in South Alabama.

Mo
nday 11/24/08 Update:

The GFS continues to trend warmer and drier.

Sun
day 11/23/08 Update:

Continuing to see a trend toward drier weather.

Satur
day 11/22/08 Update:

Saturday morning's GFS looks drier and warmer. These models continue to change with every run.

Fri
day 11/21/08 Update:

Friday morning's GFS has flip/flopped back to a solution showing the heavy rain moving through Friday the 28th and a cold front blowing through Alabama prior to Saturday's big game. This run actually hints at the possibility of snow flurries and cold blustery conditions for the Iron Bowl. My confidence is increasing that the heaviest rain and cold front will be through Alabama by game time. That would mean cold, windy, and blustery conditions. I am not ready, just yet, to call for flurries, but it is not out of the question.

Thursday 11/20/08 Update:


Thursday morning's run of the GFS is back to the idea of a storm rolling through during the day of the game. Again, this map is valid for Noon CT on 11/29/08.

Wednesday 11/19/08 Update
:

The GFS continues to show the storm system pushing through Friday night the 28th.

--------

Originally posted Tuesday morning 11/18/08:

Everyone already knows that the Alabama Crimson Tide will win, and win big over the Auburn Tigers. The toughest prediction is not about the score but rather the weather for the game. Weather models have been hinting at the possibility of strong to severe storms and heavy rains for Thanksgiving Weekend.

Here are the GFS model runs from yesterday and today. ABC 33/40 Chief Meteorologist James Spann calls forecasts beyond 7 days "voodoo". That is because these models flip/flop more than a politician from run to run that far out. So the timing and strength of the potential storm event are very much in question but the weather remains potentially very interesting for Thanksgiving Weekend and the Iron Bowl.


Tuesday 11/19/08 GFS output for Noon 11/29/08


Monday 11/17/08 GFS output for Noon 11/29/08

...

4 comments:

Storm Chasing Mikey said...

That should be interesting. I take it you will be at the game with your camera. Bama vs. Florida for the SEC title should be a good one.

Mike said...

I sure will! Thanks.

Cookeville Weather Guy said...

Roll Tide...28-7 'Bama

Mike said...

Predictions from my sons and I:

Mike 31-7 Bama
Joe 38-10 Bama
David 35-17 Bama
Matt 45-0 Bama