MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0427

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0822 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...WRN TN AND SW KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101322Z - 101445Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NRN MS THROUGH WRN TN AND SW KY AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE MORNING. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.

THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SE MO SWWD THROUGH ERN AR. A WARM FROM EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SRN KY. THE WRM SECTOR IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM CNTRL MS NWD THROUGH WRN TN...AND OBSERVED SOUNDING AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA INDICATE ONLY A MODEST CAP IN PLACE. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF FAVORABLE AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING FOR ASCENT NORTH OF UPPER JET MAX FROM EXTREME ERN AR THROUGH WRN TN AND NRN MS. STRONG BULK SHEAR AND LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES PROBABLE.

..DIAL.. 04/10/2009