MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0429

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1114 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN THROUGH MIDDLE TN...WRN THROUGH S CNTRL KY...NRN MS AND NRN AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 131...

VALID 101614Z - 101730Z

CORRECTED FOR TEXT IN SECOND PARAGRAPH

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 131 CONTINUES. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND CONTINUES ACROSS A PORTION OF WRN TN...WRN KY AND NRN MS. THE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD INTO MIDDLE TN...S CNTRL KY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT PARTS OF NRN AL WHERE A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON. STORMS THAT ORIGINALLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...NEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN OVER WRN TN AND NRN MS ALONG CLOUD STREETS WITHIN WARM SECTOR JUST EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. DESPITE MORE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH NWD EXTENT INTO KY...COLD TEMPERATURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ADEQUATE INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM MS NEWD THROUGH WRN AL INTO WRN AND MIDDLE TN WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS EXIST. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD ADVANCING VORT MAX...NWD ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS NEXT FEW HOURS. BULK SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ..DIAL.. 04/10/2009