Monday, May 10, 2010

High Risk Continues


   VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...AND CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK IN
KS...OK...SW MO...AND NW AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/NW TX TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...

...A FEW STRONG AND POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK TORNADOES...ALONG WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/NE OK AND EXTREME S CENTRAL/SE
KS...

A POWERFUL AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRACKING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD ACROSS CO/NM THIS MORNING...AND WILL EMERGE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A BROAD AREA OF
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IS TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE
QUICKLY NORTHWARD WITH MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOW AS FAR NORTH AS
SOUTHERN OK. LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO ERODING ACROSS OK WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A VERY POTENT SEVERE WEATHER SETUP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL TORNADO AND SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK OVER
PORTIONS OF KS/OK.

...SOUTHWEST KS...
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
DRYLINE OVER SOUTHWEST KS. LOW CLOUDS ARE ERODING FROM THE WEST IN
THIS AREA...LEADING TO A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION WILL ARRIVE IN THIS AREA
FIRST...WHERE THE CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD BE WEAK. WIND PROFILES
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES. LONGEVITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS
ON SPEED OF DESTABILIZATION FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL KS.

...SOUTHERN KS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK...
THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY IS LIKELY TO BEGIN AROUND
21Z IN NORTH CENTRAL OR POTENTIALLY NORTHWEST OK ALONG THE DRYLINE.
THIS WILL ALSO BE NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT INTERSECTION OF THE DRYLINE
AND RETREATING WARM FRONT. STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL BE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VERY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER /EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 50-75 KNOTS/ AND LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH OF
250-350 M2/S2/...ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S/ AND CAPE /RELATIVELY UNCAPPED MLCAPE OVER 3000 J/KG/. STORMS
SHOULD BECOME RAPIDLY SUPERCELLULAR AND RACE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN KS AND NORTHERN OK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PARAMETERS INDICATE A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG AND EVEN LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALSO APPEAR LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST
CELLS.

THE EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE REMAINS A
QUESTION. SOME OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT...SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SEVERE
STORMS COULD BE AS FAR SOUTH AS I-40. HOWEVER...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE HIGH RISK AREA. ANY STORM
THAT FORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE IN OK TODAY WILL POSE A THREAT OF
STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

SURFACE DRYLINE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TX...AND MAY PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. LACK OF SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE FORCING AND A RATHER STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION SUGGEST THAT AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE
QUITE SPARSE.

..HART/SMITH.. 05/10/2010

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