MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0654
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER
NORMAN OK
0118 PM CDT FRI MAY 01 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...TN/NORTHERN AL AND NORTHWEST GA/NORTHEAST MS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 011818Z - 011945Z
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/SOME HAIL MAY INCREASE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN TN INTO NORTHERN AL AND THE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MS/NORTHWEST GA. WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH. EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CONGLOMERATE ACROSS WESTERN/MIDDLE TN ROUGHLY ALONG I-40 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PROGRESSIVE EXPANSION OF A SURFACE COLD POOL...THE LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS MAY BEGIN TO SHOW SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD PROPAGATION/ACCELERATION SSEWD...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS/SOME HAIL. AMIDST A QUIESCENT LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT...A STEADY BUT WEAKENING MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLUX /1000-1500 J PER KG MLCAPE/ WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE PERIPHERY OF A MESO-HIGH/SURFACE COLD POOL ACROSS EASTERN TN/FAR NORTHEAST AL/NORTHERN GA. WHILE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...GRADUAL VEERING AND AMPLE INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A QUASI-ORGANIZED MCS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL/POTENTIAL FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT DAMAGING WIND/SOME HAIL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH. ..GUYER.. 05/01/2009
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