Friday, November 28, 2008

Iron Bowl Weather

See a certain coach's possible response to all of this talk about rain below.....

It will rain all morning leading up to the game at 2:30. Rain may taper off to drizzle during the game, but that is not set in stone. I highly suggest checking back later today to a good weather source. Alabamawx.com is the best. I will post more here later too. Bring the rain gear!

This what a certain coach might say about the weather:

"Weather is not a factor to me so do not ask me any of those questions because I won’t answer. I have all my cash on the table that says one of you will ask me that question anyway even though I told you not to ask it. Our team needs to dominate the opponent regardless of the weather conditions. Each play will have a history of it’s own relative to the weather and we are not concerned about external factors. The weather is only a factor if we make it a factor relative to the football game. Is it a factor to you? It is not a factor to me so do not ask me any more questions relative to the weather, aight?! Now the crowd needs to get out there and yell out of respect for what this team has done regardless of external factors as well. I will try not to chew you out with a potty mouth, but I will be pleased and happy to use it on the team if they are not dominating the opponent."

Thursday, November 27, 2008

HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! One of the many things I am thankful for this morning is the fact that I have the opportunity to share my passion about weather with you here. I am thankful for my relationship with God, my family, and my friends. I am thankful for the freedom we have in this country, good health, and provisions for my needs. The list could go on and on.

On to the weather....

The next several days will be interesting and changeable. The annual college football game between Alabama and Auburn known as the Iron Bowl will take place in Tuscaloosa Saturday at 2:30 p.m. For eleven days now have been looking at the GFS model output. The GFS had been showing dry weather with temperatures in the mid 50's most of the week. Yesterday morning the model began bumping the rain further north across Alabama. Since then it has consistently shown rainy conditions for central Alabama during the day Saturday. I asked James Spann why the model flip-flopped and he attributed it to the system getting into the U.S. upper air network.

Bottom line for Saturday: Wear a raincoat to the game. Umbrellas are not allowed in the stadium. It will be rainy with temperatures in the 50's.

There were also some hints at snow Sunday or Monday but right now the weather for Sunday and Monday looks cool, cloudy, and wet.

...

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Ongoing Iron Bowl Predictions....

Noon update Wednesday 11/26..... Brian Peters notes that the 12z run of the GFS is in the house and it is trying to push some moisture toward Tuscaloosa around game time Saturday. There is also a hint of snow for Monday. Nothing is carved in stone yet! Let's get a few more model runs in before getting too confident with the forecast.

---

On Wednesday morning I continue to see no reason to change my forecast for the Iron Bowl. After some rain on Friday, Saturday will feature temperatures in the mid to upper 50's and rain continues to look unlikely. The GFS has been rather consistent the past few days. James Spann posted about the models and his forecast yesterday afternoon here.

---

It's Monday morning and time to give my first forecast for the Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa. After some overnight showers on Friday, Saturday will begin cloudy. By game time temperatures will be in the mid 50's and rain is unlikely. --- Updated Monday 11/24/08 at 5:11 a.m.

---

Note: This is a continuing series of "predictions" of the weather for Saturday 11/29/08 at Noon CT based on output of the GFS model. It will be an interesting case study to see how the model handles this event each day.

Wednesday 11/26/08 Update:

No significant change on Wednesday morning's GFS run.

Tuesday 11/25/08 Update:

No need to change the forecast, but rain is looking increasingly likely in South Alabama.

Mo
nday 11/24/08 Update:

The GFS continues to trend warmer and drier.

Sun
day 11/23/08 Update:

Continuing to see a trend toward drier weather.

Satur
day 11/22/08 Update:

Saturday morning's GFS looks drier and warmer. These models continue to change with every run.

Fri
day 11/21/08 Update:

Friday morning's GFS has flip/flopped back to a solution showing the heavy rain moving through Friday the 28th and a cold front blowing through Alabama prior to Saturday's big game. This run actually hints at the possibility of snow flurries and cold blustery conditions for the Iron Bowl. My confidence is increasing that the heaviest rain and cold front will be through Alabama by game time. That would mean cold, windy, and blustery conditions. I am not ready, just yet, to call for flurries, but it is not out of the question.

Thursday 11/20/08 Update:


Thursday morning's run of the GFS is back to the idea of a storm rolling through during the day of the game. Again, this map is valid for Noon CT on 11/29/08.

Wednesday 11/19/08 Update
:

The GFS continues to show the storm system pushing through Friday night the 28th.

--------

Originally posted Tuesday morning 11/18/08:

Everyone already knows that the Alabama Crimson Tide will win, and win big over the Auburn Tigers. The toughest prediction is not about the score but rather the weather for the game. Weather models have been hinting at the possibility of strong to severe storms and heavy rains for Thanksgiving Weekend.

Here are the GFS model runs from yesterday and today. ABC 33/40 Chief Meteorologist James Spann calls forecasts beyond 7 days "voodoo". That is because these models flip/flop more than a politician from run to run that far out. So the timing and strength of the potential storm event are very much in question but the weather remains potentially very interesting for Thanksgiving Weekend and the Iron Bowl.


Tuesday 11/19/08 GFS output for Noon 11/29/08


Monday 11/17/08 GFS output for Noon 11/29/08

...

Saturday, November 22, 2008

Records are falling...

It was 19 this morning in Vinemont and 17 on the vehicle in West Point.

Record lows so far this morning:

RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
616 AM CDT SAT NOV 22 2008

...RECORD LOW BROKEN AT MUSCLE SHOALS THIS MORNING...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS MORNING AT NORTHWEST ALABAMA
REGIONAL AIRPORT IS 17 DEGREES...SET AT 514 AM CST. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD LOW FOR THE DATE...WHICH WAS 19 DEGREES SET IN 1914.

---

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
0319 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2008

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT TUSCALOOSA...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 19 DEGREES WAS SET AT TUSCALOOSA TODAY.

---

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
0319 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2008

$$

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT ANNISTON...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES WAS SET AT ANNISTON TODAY.

---


THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 21 SET IN 2000.

THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 22 SET IN 1964.

---

Friday, November 21, 2008

Welcome Crimson Tide Fans!



A big "Roll Tide" to the Bama fans visiting from Tidesports.com! I saw that someone put a link to my blog on the message board regarding the forecast for the Iron Bowl.

Thanks for visiting. You may also want to check out some of my Alabama Crimson Tide videos on my YouTube channel here.

...

A little Iron Bowl weather History



From Today's Clanton Advertiser, "Maybe this year's Iron Bowl will do the series justice" by Brent Maze

"Probably one of the forgotten games of the 1980s was Auburn’s 23-20 win over ‘Bama in 1983. The biggest story of that game was the fact that Jefferson County went under a tornado warning, and no one inside of Legion Field moved an inch. Even James Spann wouldn’t have interrupted the broadcast of that game. I do remember seeing a video clip of the game that had a meteorologist talking over the broadcast as Jackson scored a touchdown."

Bill Murray's article about the 1983 Iron Bowl weather

James Spann's memories of the 1983 Iron Bowl weather

Dr. Tim Coleman's aricle and photos of the game in 1983
.

...

Here are a few quotes from various fans on the TideSports.com forum:

"I was in MDB that year. Dr. Ferguson and the Auburn band director spoke just before halftime and reached an agreement: both bands left the stadium for their own safety at the start of the 3rd quarter. I agreed. It was nasty."

"I was there that evening as well and sitting toward the top of the south end zone at Legion Field. I can distinctly remember the announcement coming over the public address system that a tornado warning had just been issued for Jefferson County. At that particular moment, the rain was coming down in buckets and the wind was blowing so hard that it ripped the umbrella out of my hand. The game never stopped though and hardly anyone left the stadium looking for cover."

"My Dad and I were in the north endzone (the one Bo Jackson kept running towards Eeker). We stayed in our seats throughout! Classic game, tough loss."

"It seems like it was during the middle of the 3rd quarter of the '83 game at Legion Field that the sky opened up and the winds started gusting around 45 - 55 mph. Back in those days umbrellas were still allowed in the stadium and when the torrential downpour started all those umbrellas started going up. However, it didn't make a bit of difference because the wind was blowing sideways and would get up underneath your umbrella and turn it inside out. A few minutes later, the Legion Field public address announcer interrupted with something to the effect of: "Attention! A tornado warning has been issued for Jefferson County!" You'd think a tornado warning would be significant, but the game kept on going down on the field and NOBODY made a dash for safety down to any of the concourses because the score was pretty tight and nobody wanted to miss a single play!"

"I attended the 1983 Iron Bowl. When they announced the tornado WARNING, we just started scanning the horizon in between plays -- for funnel clouds. Big Grin But my father and I stayed in our seats. If memory serves, Bo Jackson had a field day. That Auburn wishbone was a fearsome thing to witness when #34 was in the backfield."

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Twenty years ago today...

Thanks to Brian Mears for reminding me of the Tuscaloosa, Alabama F3 tornado that occurred twenty years ago today. I made the attached video of the damage. This particular video was done the "wrong" way, taking a video of the television with my old camera. Soon I will transfer this to video the "proper" way and the quality will be much better. This comes from my own collection of weather video tape.

At 12:05 a.m. on 11/20/88 an F3 tornado touched down Tuscaloosa, AL, just south of I-59/20. It was 400 yards wide and on the ground for about one mile. No one died but eight were injured. A dozen homes were destroyed and 75 were damaged. $1.2 million in damage occurred.

Questioning Methodology Used in Climate Change Assertions

I have just read one of the most intellectually honest assessments of the issue of global warming and climate change that I have seen to date. In the interest of full disclosure, the author is a friend of mine from college. She was always much smarter than I so when I heard that she had written on the issue of climate change (which is, as she stated, right up my meteorological alley), I was very eager to hear her thoughts and approach.

Even though she looks at this issue from a mathematical and statistical viewpoint, she does so in a way that is understandable. In this article she does not address the issue of anthropogenic global warming. She does address the issue of global warming itself and questions the methodology used by climate scientists.

In summary, she challenges the methods used in measuring global temperatures and finds them to be subjective, at best. Because research results depend on computer models, and computer models depend upon subjective, incomplete data supplied by humans, she calls into question the results. She writes,

“I am describing an inherent subjectivity in all endeavors entirely dependent on computer modeling. What comes out is simply a function of what goes in. You program the computer to spit out whatever number you want. And the decision of what goes in is ultimately subjective. Unlike the situation in other sciences where methodology interacts with reality, and you get the results you get whether you like it or not; computers do not interact with the real world. The computer model does not get feedback from reality, only from the programmer. There is no way to cut out the subjective input and values of the programmer from the process. The only check and balance that exist in a field comprised of entirely computer modeling is the community of scientists and their subjective approval of one's programming. It is no wonder that "consensus" is used so much to describe climate change.”

I also like the quote she uses on the sidebar of her blog because it describes perfectly the efforts of many to shut down the debate on this subject, “Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled. Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you're being had.”-- Michael Crichton, author, film and TV producer (1942-2008)

This is the main link to the blog, Freedom 2 Question.

...

North Carolina tornadoes 11/15/08

Deadly tornadoes struck North Carolina in the early morning hours of Saturday November 15, 2008. The towns of Elm City and Kenly, North Carolina was the hardest hit. Two fatalities were reported; Joshua Wiggins, 11, who died in his grandparents' home in Elm City and Maryland Gomez, 61, who was found dead in her mobile home near Kenly.

Jesse Farrell has very good coverage on his blog including a radar capture and damage photos

Raleigh NWS Storm Survey

Charlotte Observer

News 14 Weather Blog

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Coldest morning so far this season

Low temperatures in North and Central Alabama ranged from 14-28. Most areas were in the low to mid 20's. The low here was 22. J.B. Elliot has a good list here.

Could this be the start of an unseasonably cold winter? Time will tell.

Monday, November 17, 2008

Big November Storm


Radar at 7:53 p.m. Friday

Before all of this cold air blew in Friday night and Saturday, we had a strong thunderstorm in Vinemont in Cullman County Friday which resulted in 1.27" of rain.

Here is a video of what the storm looked like from my front porch:

The drought is not over....

Several locations in North and Central Alabama have been blessed with substantial rains lately. Nevertheless, the drought we have experienced during the past three years is certainly not over.

"...RAIN KEEPS DROUGHT CONDITIONS UNCHANGED...MORE STILL NEEDED...

SYNOPSIS...

ACCORDING TO THE DROUGHT MONITOR VALID ON OCTOBER 28TH...ONLY
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND DE KALB COUNTIES REMAIN IN
SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/. THE REST OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA...EAST OF A
HUNTSVILLE TO HANCEVILLE LINE...REMAINS IN MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/.
MODERATE DROUGHT ALSO PERSISTS IN FRANKLIN COUNTY TENNESSEE.
MOST OF THE REST OF THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY...EAST OF U.S.
HIGHWAY 43...IS CONSIDERED ONLY ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ DUE TO LONG TERM
DEFICITS WHICH REMAIN."

Jason Elliott of the NWS Huntsville issued a "Drought Information Statement" this morning. The drought is not as severe as it has been but it is also not over.


For the full report, click here.
...

Storm Alert Xtreme 11/15/08 Pics

Saturday November 15 was the annual ABC 33/40 Storm Alert Xtreme event at the Birmingham, Alabama Civic Center. My son David and I attended this all-day storm spotter training session prior to driving to Tuscaloosa for the Alabama-Mississippi State game. Thank you to James Spann for posting all of my pictures on his blog Alabamawx.com. My friend James Payton also posted about the meeting on his blog here.


ABC 33/40 Meteorologist Ashley Brand spoke about the Skycam Network.


ABC 33/40 Meteorologist Dr. Tim Coleman discussed recent research.


ABC 33/40 Meteorologist Jason Simpson discussed storm reporting and communication issues. Of course he also mentioned his beloved MSU Bulldogs. Sorry about the game Saturday night, Jason. Well, not really.


ABC 33/40 Chief Meteorologist James Spann discussed topics including instant message reporting.


ABC 33/40 Meteorologist and retired NWS WCM Brian Peters presented storm spotter training in both morning and afternoon sessions.

...

Winter weather preparedness week in North Alabama


8" of snow in Tuscaloosa, Alabama January 18, 1992

Changes to winter weather terminology from the NWS Huntsville.

From the NWS Huntsville:
"National Weather Service offices in Alabama and Tennessee, including NWS Huntsville, are conducting Winter Weather Awareness Week from Monday, November 17, through Wednesday, November 19, 2008. The purpose of this week is to call attention to the winter weather that we experience across northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. Yes we can and do get winter weather!"

A few tips:

Check your alternative heating sources and review the safety rules for using them.

Check that you have a supply of food on hand that doesn't require cooking and several day supply of drinking water.

Make sure you have flashlights with fresh batteries.

When you hear about approaching winter weather fully charge your cell phone.

Have a portable battery or wind-up powered radio.

Prepare an emergency kit for your vehicle.

Friday, November 14, 2008

Another foggy morn...





URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
646 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2008

...DENSE FOG IS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE
VALLEY...

.MOIST CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING.

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-141500-
/O.NEW.KHUN.FG.Y.0007.081114T1246Z-081114T1500Z/
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLORENCE...MUSCLE SHOALS...
RUSSELLVILLE...MOULTON...ATHENS...HUNTSVILLE...DECATUR...
GUNTERSVILLE...SCOTTSBORO...FORT PAYNE...CULLMAN...LYNCHBURG...
FAYETTEVILLE...WINCHESTER
646 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2008

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING.

VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS THROUGH MID
MORNING AT MANY LOCATIONS...AND TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET AT TIMES
NEAR BODIES OF WATER AND ON RIDGE TOPS WHICH WILL LIE WITHIN THE
CLOUD LAYER. AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL ALSO MAKE STREETS WET AND SLIPPERY
IN SPOTS. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY 9 AM WHEN VISIBILITY
SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE 1/4 MILE.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE.

$$

KULA

Thursday, November 13, 2008

November 15, 1989 Huntsville, Alabama tornado


Image credit: NWS Huntsville


Radar images from NWS Birmingham

November 15, 1989 was a very dark day in the history of Huntsville, Alabama. It was also, as my friend puts it, "one of the defining moments of our lives," referring to his family. Thousands of lives were forever changed between 4:30 and 5:00 p.m. in Huntsville, Alabama 18 years ago this afternoon. This storm was responsible for 21 deaths and over 500 injuries.

My dear friend Sharp has made this comment on a blog post about this storm:
"That night is one of the defining moments of our lives. My wife was critically injured in the tornado and was left paraplegic by it. We lost our apartment, our cat, and one of our cars. We had only been married about 18 months. It was also my parents’ silver wedding anniversary. My wife still suffers from PTSD during severe weather and we will live with that storm’s effects every day for the rest of our lives."

Please remember and pray for all those who were affected by this tornado, that God will be with them today and bring them peace.

Links:

Gary Dobbs of WAAY 31 remembers the tragic day.
James Spann, a broadcast meteorologist in Birmingham posted memories of that day.


"Panorama composite image constructed from 11 video frames taken around 2237 UTC, showing cloud formations associated with squall line. The view is north through southwest. The tornado is located ~6 km north at this time. Video was taken by Greg Talley." ---NWS Birmingham

Tuesday November 14 forecasts mentioned the possibility of thunderstorms the next day. As the day wore on language in the forecasts became more ominous. At 9:30 a.m. the morning before the tornado, the National Severe Storms Forecast Center issued a Public Severe Weather Outlook because of the unusually strong potential for severe weather in North Alabama. At 10:50 a.m., the Birmingham NWS issued a Special Weather Statement which included the language, "MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT POISED FOR ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA!"


At 12:30 p.m. a Tornado Watch was issued until 8:00 p.m. Beginning at 12:45 p.m., The NWS Huntsville began issuing warnings for the counties to the south and west of Huntsville because of a dangerous squall line and two supercells out ahead of the line. Large hail and intense winds were reported with this line.


A Severe Thunderstorm Warning was in effect for Madison County at the time the tornado struck Huntsville and it was upgraded to a Tornado Warning at 4:35 based on a report relayed through the amateur radio spotter network of a tornado touchdown in the city.


According to the Huntsville Times:


259 homes were destroyed
130 homes sustained major damage
148 homes sustained minor to moderate damage
80 businesses destroyed
8 businesses damaged
3 churches heavily damaged
2 schools destroyed
10 public buildings destroyed or heavily damaged
$1.9 Million in public utility damage

A video look back at the 11/15/89 Huntsville tornado

Nineteen years ago this Saturday Huntsville, Alabama was changed forever by an F4 tornado.

Here is a look back by way of video. The first video is coverage of the storm by James Spann who worked for WBRC 6 in Birmingham at the time. Even though the tornado was not in his coverage area he did a great job tracking the storm as it approached Huntsville.




Huntsville's WAAY Channel 31 Special
Part One:



Part Two:


Part Three:


Part Four:


Part Five:


Part Six:

Family, fun, sports, work, and (yes), a little weather...

Life isn't all about weather is it? Well, almost. Just thought I would take a rare break from my weather posting to share a few images of a typical week in my corner of the world.


Matt warming up for his basketball game on Saturday


Before the Alabama game the boys played in the woods behind the house.


The boys and I enjoyed watching Alabama defeat LSU to clinch the SEC West on Saturday 11/8/08.


Sunday David spotted a fire from a downed line and we called 911. He "saved" the school.


My boys on Sunday 11/9/08 near Vinemont school


Sunday 11/9/08 near Vinemont school


Sunday 11/9/08 near Vinemont school


A look at my office on Wednesday 11/12/08.


Fog this morning at 11 a.m. in Vinemont, Alabama

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Before I hit the hay.....



Heavy rain and gusty wind are blowing through my area....

I'd say gusts are as high as 15-20 on based on the Beaufort scale....

CoCoRaHS Rainfall Observations


Columbus Nexrad rainfall estimates

Killen 7.8 N 0.42 Lauderdale
Russellville 7.9 WSW 0.16 Franklin
Elkmont 0.5 NNE 0.16 Limestone
Florence 1.2 S 0.13 Lauderdale
Florence 2.3 SSW 0.13 Lauderdale
Tuscumbia 6.2 S 0.12 Colbert
Rogersville 2.8 NNW 0.12 Lauderdale
Sheffield 1.3 ENE 0.12 Colbert
Florence 5.4 E 0.12 Lauderdale
Cherokee 7.4 SW 0.11 Colbert
Florence 2.6 SSW 0.11 Lauderdale
Cherokee 5.9 SW 0.10 Colbert
Anderson 2.1 NE 0.10 Lauderdale
Athens 4.9 NNW 0.10 Limestone
Rogersville 3.1 NNE 0.10 Lauderdale
Florence 2.2 N 0.10 Lauderdale
Lester 10.5 S 0.09 Limestone
Muscle Shoals 1.3 SSW 0.09 Colbert
Florence 1.5 NE 0.09 0.0 NA ALLauderdale
Florence 0.6 NE 0.09 0.0 NA ALLauderdale
Vernon 4.1 SSE 0.08 0.0 NA ALLamar
Harvest 2.8 S 0.08 0.0 NA ALMadison
Killen 8.1 N 0.07 0.0 NA ALLauderdale
Ardmore 4.5 S 0.06 0.0 0.0 ALLimestone
Scottsboro 1.7 N 0.05 0.0 NA ALJackson
Athens 4.3 W 0.05 0.0 NA ALLimestone
Athens 3.9 NW 0.05 0.0 NA ALLimestone
Capshaw 4.1 W 0.04 0.0 0.0 ALLimestone
Brownsboro 2.3 NW 0.04 0.0 0.0 ALMadison
Cloverdale 6.6 WSW 0.04 0.0 NA ALLauderdale
Moores Mill 3.9 SE 0.04 0.0 NA ALMadison
Huntsville 5.5 SE 0.04 0.0 NA ALMadison
Vinemont 0.2 ENE 0.04 0.0 NA ALCullman
Hollytree 0.6 NNE 0.03 0.0 NA ALJackson
Huntsville 7.9 SSE 0.03 0.0 NA ALMadison
Skyline 0.7 SSW 0.03 0.0 NA ALJackson
Scottsboro 4.6 NW 0.03 0.0 NA ALJackson
Madison 0.2 N 0.03 0.0 0.0 ALMadison
Hazel Green 1.2 NW 0.03 0.0 NA ALMadison
Winfield 6.4 S 0.03 0.0 NA ALFayette
Huntsville 7.1 SE 0.03 0.0 NA ALMadison
Huntsville 5.8 ENE 0.03 0.0 NA ALMadison
Falkville 5.1 E 0.03 0.0 NA ALMorgan
Huntsville 3.9 N 0.03 0.0 NA ALMadison
Madison 1.4 NNE 0.03 0.0 NA ALMadison
Priceville 2.2 WSW 0.03 0.0 NA ALMorgan
Huntsville 4.4 ENE 0.02 0.0 NA ALMadison
Harvest 3.8 SSW 0.02 0.0 NA ALMadison
Madison 3.2 NW 0.02 0.0 0.0 ALLimestone

Monday, November 10, 2008

Friday, November 07, 2008

Rainy November morning

I have already posted some radar captures, rainfall data, and video from this morning's rainfall.

Here are a few pictures of what it looked like in Vinemont around 6:30 a.m.





...

"MAJOR HURRICANE PALOMA"

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
700 PM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

...DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE PALOMA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY APPROACHES GRAND CAYMAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY AND LAS TUNAS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GRANMA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM EST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES...
50 KM...SOUTH OF THE EASTERN END OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 275
MILES...440 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND
THAT GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PALOMA WILL PASS NEAR GRAND CAYMAN
TONIGHT...BE NEAR CAYMAN BRAC SATURDAY MORNING...AND BE APPROACHING
THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA LATE SATURDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115
MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AFTERWARD...GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY LATE SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES...195 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...SEVERAL REPORTS OF SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 MPH...97 KM/HR...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM AMATEUR/HAM RADIO OPERATORS ON
GRAND CAYMAN.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AS ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF PALOMA IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 8 TO 12 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER OF PALOMA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD AND
MUDSLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 700 PM EST POSITION...18.9 N...81.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 1000 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Todays Alabama rainfall totals


Radar estimated rainfall from Birmingham Nexrad

Here are some of today's rainfall totals from across the State from the Mesowest network:

1.36 Bankhead/Lawrence
1.35 Haleyville
1.03 Evergreen
1.01 Decatur
0.94 Muscle Shoals
0.85 Huntsville International Airport
0.85 Redstone Arsenal
0.83 Vinemont (my observation)
0.63 Troy
0.57 Auburn
0.53 Montgomery
0.52 Meridianville
0.50 Andalusia
0.45 Bon Secour/Baldwin
0.34 Greenville, Alabama
0.30 Mobile
0.22 Albertville
0.16 Florala
0.09 Shoal Creek/Cleburne
0.08 Anniston
0.06 Fort Payne
0.06 Talladega/Talladega
0.03 Birmingham Airport
0.01 Dothan
0.01 Ozark
0.01 Gadsden
0.01 Tuscaloosa
0.01 Oakmulgee/Bibb

This morning's rainfall...

I will post more later, but this is what it looked like driving through Morgan County around 7:15 a.m.

Rain moving in...


6:05 a.m.

After several days of very dry weather, rain is finally moving in this morning.

Durning the last 29 days in Vinemont: 27 days with no rain and two days with rain, one with .02" and one with .48".

...

Thursday, November 06, 2008

Fall Severe Weather Season Underway

Yesterday's severe weather chase video from Tornadovideos.net

"Video of a rare late autumn supercelluar thunderstorm. Southeast of Guthrie Joel, Chris and John witness a powerful cloud to ground lightning strike at close range. Check out TornadoVideos.net for more insane tornado video."

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Wednesday's leaves...







at Wheeler Wildlife Refuge near Decatur, Alabama.

...

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Voting Weather











We are having nice weather for voting today here in Vinemont in northern Cullman County. It seems like a big turnout here with a pretty good line of people waiting just before 7 a.m. No one can use the weather as an excuse not to vote in North and Central Alabama.