Thursday, September 11, 2008

Storm surge is a major concern on the Texas coast

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1117 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...MASSIVE STORM TIDES EXPECTED NEAR AND EAST OF LANDFALL...

.AT 1000 PM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT
ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE FRIDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER BECAUSE IKE IS A
VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG
THE COASTLINE EARLY ON FRIDAY LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES
THE COAST.

DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.

THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT IKE REMAINS A LARGE CYCLONE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
265 MILES.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA
HAS RISEN TO 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL AND AM STRESSING THAT THE SURGE WILL EXTENDING A
GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE
SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 25 FEET COULD
OCCUR AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND CLOSE TO THE COAST THE LARGE
BATTERING WAVES WILL WORSEN THE IMPACTS OF THE SURGE.

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