Friday, September 12, 2008

Ike strenghthens to 110 (One mph from Cat 3)

HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  47A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
600 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...IKE STRENGTHENS SOME AS IT BEARS DOWN ON GALVESTON ISLAND AND THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST...
...RISING WATER LEVELS AND BATTERING WAVES AFFECTING THE AREA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 600 PM CDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF VERY LARGE HURRICANE IKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 105 MILES
...170 KM...SOUTH OF BEAUMONT TEXAS.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 13
MPH...20 KM/HR. A NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
BY LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE IKE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH NEAR 25 FEET
IN SOME AREAS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 600 PM CDT POSITION...28.2 N...93.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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