Monday, September 01, 2008

Gustav now a Cat 2


428
WTNT32 KNHC 011301
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
800 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

...GUSTAV WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...EYEWALL MOVING ONTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST...

AT 800 AM CDT...1300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 130
MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. THIS POSITION
IS ALSO ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PORT FOURCHON ALONG
THE LOUISIANA COAST.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
CROSS THE LOUISIANA COAST BY MIDDAY TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110
MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFTER GUSTAV MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM. THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION IN SHELL BEACH
LOUISIANA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 64 MPH...104 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE COAST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI...ARKANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY.

REPEATING THE 800 AM CDT POSITION...28.9 N...90.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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