Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Early update on Ike



Excerpts from the NHC 5 a.m. ET Advisory and discussion:

MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…963 MB.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IKE HAS BEGUN TO RECOVER FROM THE
MANY HOURS OF INTERACTION WITH LAND. A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD
CONTINUE AS IKE MOVES OVER A COUPLE OF WARM EDDIES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOOP CURRENT AND MOVES WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES IKE A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE

I HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 24 TO 48
HOUR FORECAST TRACK SINCE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED.
THEREAFTER...THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT SO HIGH BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE
MORE SPREAD OUT...BUT THEY ALL BRING THE HURRICANE ASHORE ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

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