Saturday, August 30, 2008

Latest from the NHC


BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...GUSTAV STRENGTHENS...BEARING DOWN ON THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB.

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THUS...THERE IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IF THE STORM
STRUCTURE AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH PERMIT. THE SHIPS
MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 104 KT...THE LGEM 97 KT...THE
HWRF 114 KT...THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE 114 KT...AND THE GFDL
129 KT. BASED ON THIS AND THE PREMISE THAT THE INTERACTION WITH
THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW STEADY STRENGTHENING...THE FORECAST PEAK
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 115 KT. GUSTAV COULD GET STRONGER THAN
THAT IF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS
A SLIGHT WEAKENING AT 72 HR AS GUSTAV REACHES LOWER OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT AND POSSIBLE ENCOUNTERS SOME WESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.


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