Sunday, August 31, 2008

Hurricane Warning Cameron, LA to Flora-Bama



Hurricane warnings are in effect from Cameron, LA to the Alabama-Florida border. Winds in Gustav were 125 mph in the most recent advisory from the NHC. They noted that the western tip of Cuba caused Gustav to lose strength more than originally thought.

Some strengthening is possible in the short term. In the longer term, models are in fairly good agreement that Gustav will weaken some due to wind shear and slightly cooler water over the northern Gulf. Confidence in the weakening projection is not high as the models traditionally struggle with intensity forecasts. Confidence has increased that Gustav will continue moving to the northwest and then possibly make a slight turn more to the west.

Gustav will be a dangerous and powerful hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast.

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HURRICANE GUSTAV LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
654 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES AS
WELL AS THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA...
AT 600 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED 
ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...GUSTAV
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...AND MAKE
LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT.


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