Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Dolly moving across South Texas


4:52


5:55


6:40

AS OF 4 PM TODAY:
* Brownsville…heavy rain, wind SW 38, gusts 60
* Buoy 35 miles NE Port Mansfield - 24 foot waves

LATEST ADVISORY
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
400 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

…DOLLY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND…

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO JUST SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY…AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER
BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

AT 4 PM CDT…2100 UTC…THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM BAFFIN BAY
NORTHWARD TO CORPUS CHRISTI HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT O’CONNOR.

AT 4 PM CDT…2100 UTC…THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE
WATCH FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT…2100Z…THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES…
80 KM…NORTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS WILL BRING DOLLY FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHER
TEXAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH…140
KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES…220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB…28.64 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES…WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES…OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING UP TO 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW BUT WILL
SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION…26.6 N…97.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…970 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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