Sunday, June 01, 2008

Severe threat



The severe threat has been upgraded to "moderate" by the SPC for eastern OK and Kansas. The primary threats today will be straight line wind damage and hail. Tornadoes cannot be ruled out, however, especially in the moderate risk area.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK INTO AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST...

...ERN OK INTO THE MID SOUTH...
MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER NERN OK THIS MORNING WITH STRONG
HEATING AND ABUNDANT DCAPE ALONG AXIS EXTENDING ESEWD INTO CENTRAL
AR INVOF STALLED SURFACE OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH LLJ FEEDING THIS SYSTEM
EARLY TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND REFOCUS WWD OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SYSTEM APPEARS TOO ORGANIZED AT THIS POINT TO
WEAKEN DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY
BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED/WIDESPREAD AS BOWING MCS TRACKS TOWARDS
CENTRAL AR THIS AFTERNOON AND WARRANTS HIGHER PROBABILITIES/MDT
CATEGORICAL RISK. HOW FAR E-SE THIS SYSTEM IS ABLE TO TRACK REMAINS
PROBLEMATIC. HOWEVER...MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND GENERAL E-W
ORIENTATION OF STALLED SURFACE FRONT INDICATE SYSTEM COULD PERSIST
WELL INTO THE MID SOUTH REGION BY THIS EVENING.

...TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
COMPOSITE SURFACE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS IS WELL DEFINED ON
SURFACE ANALYSES AND VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM CENTRAL SC INTO CENTRAL
GA/NRN AL LATE THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SUPPRESSED AHEAD OF AND WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...WHICH IS ALSO SHIFTING SWD FARTHER FROM STRONGER FLOW ALOFT.
AS CAP WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM PORTIONS OF
AL TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF SURFACE OUTFLOW AND MCV NOTED ON
SAT IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS WRN SC THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER NORTH NEARER MAIN SURFACE FRONT
PUSHING SLOWLY SSEWD INTO THE APPALACHIANS/KY. STRONGER CORES WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

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