Friday, March 07, 2008

Winter Storm Warning

The Huntsville NWS has placed North Alabama under a Winter Storm Warning for tonight and tomorrow morning. Accumulations will be greatest in Northwest Alabama, higher elevations of Northeast Alabama, and Tennessee. Here is part of the warning text and then a part of the forecast discussion:
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SNOWBANDS MAY AFFECT THIS
REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ALMOST
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA.


OUR THINKING IS THAT 2-3IN SEEMS LIKELY IN NW
AL...AROUND
2 IN THE HSV METRO...AND 2-4 IN
SRN MID TN/JACKSON CO. WILL TREND A BIT LOWER
IN OUR SE WHERE THE SNOW
CHANGEOVER WILL BE
DELAYED THE LONGEST...AND HIGHER IN
SOME OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE
NWLY FLOW
UPSLOPING
WILL AID ACCUMULATIONS. THE BIGGEST
ISSUE WILL BE
MESOSCALE BANDING AS NOTED
EARLIER...AS THE 12Z
NAM DOES SHOW A DECENT
AREA OF POTENTIAL
VORTICITY AND MID-LVL
DEFORMATION MOVING INTO THE REGION JUST
BEHIND THE SNOW
CHANGEOVER /AND THIS IS
BACKED UP BY OBSERVED TRENDS TO
OUR WEST/.
IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR LOCALLY...OUR TOTALS

COULD VERY WELL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

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