Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Strong storms now...severe possible later


At 6:38 lightning began here in Vinemont and continues at 6:42. At 6: 42 heavy rain has begun as the boys and I are getting ready to get in the car (grrrr...).

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The NWS Birmingham believes that the severe weather threat may hold off until 10 a.m. At 6:37 they issued a mesoscale discussion. Here is an excerpt:
WE ARE STILL WATCHING TRENDS CLOSELY FOR LATER THIS
MORNING...IN THE 15Z TO 17Z TIME FRAME. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS IN BOTH THE NAM AND RUC OF SOME MID LEVEL
COOLING...WHICH COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING...MAY
SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. STILL THINKING THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THUNDERSTORM WINDS...BUT AT 15Z...RUC13 0-3KM SRH IN
EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 AND BAND OF MUCAPE OF ABOUT 500
J/KG ROUGHLY ALONG A JASPER/TUSCALOOSA/ UNIONTOWN AXIS
INDICATE THE TORNADO THREAT IS STILL WORTH WATCHING.

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