Friday, March 07, 2008

Mesoscale Discussion from SPC...


MODEL FORECASTS DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A HANDLE
ON WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED
TO ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...MODIFYING
FOR COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN 12Z SHV RAOB
WOULD SUGGEST THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
CHARGE SEPARATION TO GENERATE LIGHTNING. THUS...
LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE BURSTS OF INTENSE SNOW/REF
2.5 IN PER HR OBSERVED RATE IN JEFFERSON COUNTY AR
AT 19Z/...OUGHT TO CONTINUE.

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