Sunday, March 02, 2008

From Jackson, MS and Huntsville NWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
835 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON
/EVENING INCLUDING TORNADOES...

.DISCUSSION...THINGS STILL ON TRACK FOR MON AFTERNOON/
EVENING AND LOOK VERY OMINOUS! NEW 00Z NAM HAS ARRIVED AND
IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREV RUNS ON TIMING AND CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION. IF ANY THING...IT IS A TAD STRONGER AS THE SFC LOW
IS DEEPER...THUS MAKING THE LLJ A TAD STRONGER. I`M NOT SURPRISED
THE SFC LOW IS A BIT DEEPER AND FULLY EXPECT THE 00Z GFS TO
FOLLOW SUIT. THIS IS TOO MUCH OF A POWER HOUSE SYSTEM TO KEEP
PRESSURE >1006-1009MB. I CAN EVEN SEE PRESSURE GET LOWER THAN
WHAT THE NAM/EURO ARE ADVERTISING WITH VALUES CLOSER TO 1000MB
ACROSS THE CWA.

I`M BECOMING VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE 21-00Z WINDOW AS THE
NAM/GFS ALL INDICATE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. YOU CAN VISUALIZE
THINGS BETTER WITH THE NAM B/C OF THE 21Z TIME STEP. THE MAIN
THING IS THEY BOTH INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS IN
ADVANCE OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE/FRONT AND MAY ACTUALLY BECOME A
LARGE FAMILY OF SUPERCELLS
THAT RAPIDLY TRACK NE INTO/ACROSS THE
CWA. I DID A LOCAL SVR WX CHECKLIST FOR MLU AT 21 USING GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND GOT WHAT AMOUNTS TO THE HIGHEST RANKING (EXTREME)
WHICH IS RARE TO ACHIEVE (FEB 5 2008 ALSO HIT IT) WHICH HISTORICALLY
SUPPORTS A SIG RISK OF A HIGH END EVENT
WITH SIG TYPE TORNADOES.
WHAT ALSO GETS ME CONCERNED IS WHERE THE STORMS INITIATE...SW TO
CENTRAL LA. THEY THEN WILL QUICKLY TRACK ALMOST NNE INTO OUR W/SWCWA.
THIS GIVES ANY SUPERCELL TIME TO MATURE AND BECOME LONG LIVED.
THOSE ARE THE WORST AS FEB 5 HAS SHOWN. I CAN REALLY SEE A CORRIDOR
ALONG THE TRACE AND ABOUT 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THAT BEING EXTREMELY
FAVORABLE FOR SIG TORNADOES BETWEEN 4-9 PM. MON HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BE A HISTORIC TYPE SVR WX DAY AND ALL NEED TO BE WX CONSCIOUS.

---

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
948 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-031200-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLORENCE...MUSCLE SHOALS...
RUSSELLVILLE...MOULTON...ATHENS...HUNTSVILLE...DECATUR...
GUNTERSVILLE...SCOTTSBORO...FORT PAYNE...CULLMAN...LYNCHBURG...
FAYETTEVILLE...WINCHESTER
948 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THE MOMENT...THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO STABLE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BEST TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 10 PM AND 11 PM
OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA...AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE HUNTSVILLE AREA
AND MIDNIGHT TO 2 AM OVER NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

PERSONS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS NOW FOR
THIS LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. TAKE TIME TO REVIEW YOUR SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY PLANS...AND INSURE YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS WORKING
PROPERLY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO OCCURRENCES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION REGARDING THIS SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT. YOU CAN ALSO GET THIS INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE HUNTSVILLE WEBSITE AT: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

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