Sunday, January 27, 2008

Upcoming this week...

GFS model places a storm midnight Thursday night-Friday morning to our northwest...

On Tuesday we may have strong storms and over one-half inch of rainfall. Severe weather does not seem likely. Later in the week a stronger trough, possibly negatively tilted, will approach Alabama along with deep moisture and a strong jet stream. If all of these factors phase up, we may be in for a round of severe weather Friday.

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Excerpt from Huntsville AFD this morning...

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...DEEPENING UPR TROUGH DIGGING
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS...WILL SWING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THU AFTN. THE 00Z/27 GFS IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED
AS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO BUT THE 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A NEARLY
CLOSED UPR LOW COMING OUT OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE THU. IN
EITHER CASE...A SFC WAVE COMING UP FROM THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AHEAD OF THE UPR LOW AND TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE LWR MS
VLY TO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...
THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...ITS STILL TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THE
AREA REMAINS IN AN ELEVATED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE POTENTIAL INTENSITY
AND TRACK OF THIS STORM SYSTEM FAVORS SEVERE /POSSIBLE TORNADIC/
WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

3 comments:

Dewdrop said...

You better, Mike?

Mike said...

Yes, Dew, Thanks. Just a little weak, though...

Dewdrop said...

Recovery can be tough from stuff like that. Don't you wish we could be like kids, and just bounce right back?