Wednesday, November 07, 2007

Latest model output for next week's storm

The GFS model waffled a little bit today. The waffling wasn't so much about whether there might be a storm system or how strong it might be. Rather it waffled a bit regarding the timing. Yesterday's 18z (1 pm CDT) run showed the system centered over Mississippi next Tuesday afternoon. Today's 18z run shows it centered just northwest of Memphis next Wednesday afternoon.

The timing and exact placement of the low pressure will not be something we can reliably predict until the event gets closer. This time of year those issues are especially critical. The latest run (18z) does not bode well for North and Central Mississippi and North and Central Alabama. The greatest likelihood of severe weather will probably be for areas east and south of the low pressure center.

In summary:

1. I fully expect portions of the Deep South will be dealing with severe weather next Tuesday and/or Wednesday.

2. It is too early to predict the timing and area of the greatest threat of severe weather.

3. The latest model run tends to create more concern. If this even occurs during afternoon hours and the low is near Memphis, we might me in for a significant severe weather episode.

Stay tuned!

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