Friday, November 30, 2007

Upper Michigan snow


This Afternoon SnowHi 13°F
Tonight Snow LikelyLo 1°F
Saturday SnowLikelyHi 24°F
SaturdayNight SnowLo 20°F
Sunday SnowHi 26°F
SundayNight SnowLikelyLo 15°F
Monday SnowLikelyHi 19°F
Monday Night Chance SnowLo 9°F
Tuesday Chance SnowHi 21°F

More snow stories...this is just in from the NWS Marquette, MI

1056 AM EST FRI NOV 30 2007...
WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING......

WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEPOSIT AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY AFTER 11
AM...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
FROM THE PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS TO MASS CITY AND
THE LEAST SNOW SOUTH OF M-28. IN ADDITION...GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CREATE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE COMBINATION OF
HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITYTHIS EVENING
BUT DROP ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH
THE NIGHT. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS
WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE
AT TIMES.
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SATURDAY WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS
ONTONAGON COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
10 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY
IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

Wisconsin weather blog

I found a really cool blog about the weather in Northen Wisconsin. Visit Nathan's Maple Hill Weather for the latest on the winter storm in Wisconsin.

Let's go to Wisconsin!


Graphic from NWS Green Bay, WI

Well, at least vicariously we can travel to Wisconsin! The weather in Alabama is rather vanilla at the moment, so lets take a look at the excitement in central and Northern Wisconsin. Parts of the Badger State could receive 6-10 inches of the white stuff Saturday and Saturday night. Check this out from the Green Bay NWS...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
551 AM CST FRI NOV 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRALWISCONSIN...EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE WEEKEND. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH. SINCE THE STORM WILL AFFECT
A LARGE PORTION OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ANYONE WITH
TRAVEL PLANS DURING THE WEEKEND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD SNOWFALL REPORTS
TO THE NATIONALWEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY
WHENEVER SNOW OCCURS.

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Keep an eye on 12/08 for some interesting wx


12Z GFS output for December 8 shows the possibility of a storm system approaching Alabama.

From the "Sad But True Dept."

Meet the women who won't have babies - because they're not eco friendly Daily Mail
Had Toni Vernelli gone ahead with her pregnancy ten years ago, she would know at first hand what it is like to cradle her own baby, to have a pair of innocent eyes gazing up at her with unconditional love, to feel a little hand slipping into hers - and a voice calling her Mummy. But the very thought makes her shudder with horror. Because when Toni terminated her pregnancy, she did so in the firm belief she was helping to save the planet.

Lightning on Venus


ESA image
The European Space Agency has confirmed the presence of lightning on Venus through its Venus Express Mission.
"In addition to all the pressure and heat, we can confirm there is lightning on Venus -- maybe even more activity than there is here on Earth," said Christopher Russell, a NASA-sponsored scientist on Venus Express from the University of California, Los Angeles, and lead author of one of the Nature papers. "Not a very good place to vacation, that is for sure." The discovery puts Venus in elite planetary company. Scientists currently know of only three other planetary bodies in the entire universe that generate lightning -- Earth, Jupiter and Saturn."

"ESA’s Venus Express has revealed Venus as never before. For the first time, scientists are able to investigate from the top of its atmosphere, down nearly to the surface. They have shown it to be a planet of surprises that may once have been more Earth-like, and still is, to a certain extent.

Sunday, November 25, 2007

A fun afternoon out in the weather

The boys and I had a fun afternoon exploring the woods in the back of our lot. The weather was chilly, misty, and a light rain began as we headed to the house. We enjoyed laying on our backs, looking up at the clouds and the trees. We closed our eyes and listened to the sounds; leaves, twigs, waterfalls, sripping water, distant cars, planes, and wildlife. It doesn't really get much better than this!







Friday, November 23, 2007

GFS model output graphics





Here is a graphical representation of the Sunday/Monday storm from this morning's run of the GFS.

Thanksgiving weekend weather update

I hope you had a great Thanksgiving yesterday. It was a great day for me as I was spending time with my children and my parents. We should always give thanks but I want to take a moment here to thank God for my family. I am so fortunate to have three great sons, a great sister (who lives far away and was taking food to eldely shut-ins), and both parents who are still alive and kicking. My mom made a wonderful meal for us yesterday with all of the trimmings. I hope you have (or will) take a few moments to give thanks.

Thanksgiving was not the best of days for some Santa Rosa County Florida residents who were struck by a possible tornado. The good news was that despite the damage there were no injuries reported.
Aricle from Orlando Sentinel. This is just a reminder that we remain in a severe weather season here in the Deep South.

Speaking of severe weather, there is still a pretty good chance of that occurring Sunday night or Monday. Here are a few excerpts from weather sources I trust:


James Spann at Alabamawx.com:
"A severe weather threat still seems likely late Sunday night into Monday as we break into the warm sector of the storm system. The primary window for severe storms seems to be in the general period from midnight Sunday night through noon on Monday. At midday Monday, the cold front should extend southward, roughly along I-65, from a surface low over western Kentucky. While the synoptic scale features look favorable for severe weather, the mesoscale is the key to the magnitude of the event, and we really won’t know that until Sunday. We all need to keep an eye on this."

NWS Birmingham
"AS THIS IMPULSE MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY SUNDAY
MORNING...MUCH ADVERTISED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
FORM IN WESTERN GULF...WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING
NORTHEAST IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND SURFACE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 12Z MONDAY.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE JOINED WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS...UPPER SUPPORT...AND WARM SECTOR AT LEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS COULD ALL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A ROUND OF SEVERETHUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF AREA. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO
LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST. TIMING WILL BE NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE WEEKEND
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHEROUTLOOK. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY
EXIT THE AREA BY18Z ON MONDAY."

NWS Huntsville
"THE GFS DURING MONDAY CONTINUED TO DEPICT A
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AS THIS SYSTEM MOVE
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. GFS SHOWALTER INDICES WERE
ZERO TO -2C DURINGTHE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGH
0-3KM HELICITIES PER THE NAM. TIMINGAT THIS TIME IS
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
COULDHELP REDUCE STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCES.
MODEL AND HPC QPF SUGGESTANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY."

NWS Jackson, MS
"SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN EVENT
STILL ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...IT
CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE LIKELY THAT SEVERE WEATHER
AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA...WHILE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ
TRACE PARKWAY.WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT NOW WITH THESE
AREAL DESIGNATIONS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER STILL CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE AND 06Z GFS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW CIRCULATION...TRACKING IT NEWD ALONG THE NATCHEZ
TRACE SUNDAY NIGHT.THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM
IT AT THIS POINT. AS THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY
(850MB FROM 20KT TO 50KT AND850MB THETAE FROM ~320
TO 330+ DEG K) UNDERNEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
A 120KT UPPER JET. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUNDAY MORNING
(SHOWALTER INDICES ~ -2 DEG C) WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TOSFC-BASED INSTABILITY AS THE WARM
SECTOR SURGES NORTHWARD (BL LI -2TO -3 DEG C) ACROSS
SRN AND ERN MS. WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR DISCRETE SFC-
BASED TSTMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE HBG-LAUREL
AREA AS ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR BECOMES VERYIMPRESSIVE
(0-1KM 35-40KTS, 0-6KM ~45KTS). HOWEVER...EXPECT THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BECOME ORGANIZED
AND LINEAR. WHILE 2-8KM SHEAR VECTORS ARE FORECAST
TO BE NORMAL TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SUGGESTING CELLULAR CONVECTION...THEY ARE ALSO
FORECAST TO BE QUITE WEAK (<>
STRONG FORCING AND LOW-LEVELCONVERGENCE IMPLIES
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
COMPRISED OF OCCASIONAL BOWS AND LEWPS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS...EXPECT THAT SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE COULD
OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MS WITH THE
GREATEST RISK BEING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR
FORM HBG TO MEI...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER RISK NEAR AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. THE PAST FEW RUNS
OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THIS PORTRAYAL."

Mobile NWS:
"THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY AS THE
LONG ANTICIPATED GULF LOW STARTS TO GEN UP TO THE
WEST. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF PACKAGES ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT GENNING UP A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF LAKE
CHARLES AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE GOES NEGATIVE TILT OVER EASTERN TEXAS...
AND A STRONG 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET (40-60 KTS) TRANSLATES
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THIS
RESULTS IN A SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASED WIND SHEAR
PATTERN WITH HELICITY VALUES (0-3 KM) RANGING FROM 300
TO 500 ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO REALIZE
STRONGLY ROTATING/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...SO THE FORECAST
PATTERN CONTINUES TO INDICATE (FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS
NOW) A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT WE COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY."

Before I go I stumbled across a book review for a book I am really interested in entitled F5. It is the story of how an Alabama community (Athens) was affected by the Superoutbreak in 1974. Who knows, maybe I will get it for Christmas.

Possible tornado in Santa Rosa County, FL


A possible tornado touched down early Thursday in Santa Rosa County, FL.

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Foggy morning on the ridgetop...





I took these photos this morning at about 7:00 on the way to work.

Forecast

Today 11/21/07: Skies will be mostly cloudy with a steady wind out of the south. Scattered showers will increase in coverage as the day goes along. Highs will be in the low 70’s.

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity as a cold front approaches. Strong to severe storms will be possible. Winds will continue out of the south until frontal passage after midnight. The low will drop into the 50’s. All parts of north and central Alabama will receive some rain.

Tomorrow 11/22/07 Thanksgiving: Temperatures will remain steady or slowly fall into the 40’s under cloudy skies. Winds will be steady out of the northwest making it feel cooler. In short, it will be a 5D day: Drizzle, Damp, Dark, Dreary, and Dank.

Tennessee Tornadoes 11/14/07


Map from NWS Huntsville

Storm surveys are in on the mesocyclone that travelled parallel to the Alabama-Tennessee border last Wednesday November 14. I had previously posted a news article and a few radar shots and warnings here and here.

The Huntsville NWS has determined that an EF1 tornado occurred south of Flintville in Lincoln County, TN.

Nashville NWS posted a survey about two tornadoes in Middle Tennessee.

The Weather Guy, aka Tennessee Mike, posted lots of information about the Marion County, TN tornado.

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Model output for Sunday evening





I couldn't resist posting this from this morning's 12Z (7 a.m.) run of the GFS.



I know: It's too early to make a specific forecast. It is definitely something to monitor, though.

Weather buffet this week

Today (Tuesday 11/20/07): It will be a beautiful sunny day and the high will be in the mid 70’s.

Tomorrow (Wednesday 11/21/07): Southerly winds will be increasing ahead of a storm system that will move over Alabama during the overnight hours tomorrow night. The Storm Prediction Center has North Alabama under a slight risk for severe weather.

Thanksgiving (Thursday 11/22/07): Thanksgiving will be blustery with cloudy skies in the morning and temperatures will be falling during the day into the 40’s.

Friday 11/23/07: A cold morning with temperatures near freezing will give way to sunny skies and a high in the 50’s.

Saturday 11/24/07: A cool, cloudy and rainy day. Temperatures will be in the 40’s. This will probably be an overrunning event which means that we will potentially have a much needed long, steady rain much of the day. Do not be surprised if the rain begins with a few sleet pellets before the temperature rises.

Sunday 11/25/07: Models are showing a negative tilted trough approaches us from the west and a warm front approaches from the south. I will monitor this for a potential severe weather outbreak. It is a little too early to worry about it now.

Sunday, November 18, 2007

Colorful time...

James Spann posted a few of my photos on his excellent site here.

Fall photos


The Quad, Universtity of Alabama 11/17/07


The Quad, University of Alabama 11/17/07


Looking up from the Quad 11/17/07


Skies above Bryant-Denny Stadium 11/17/07


NE Huntsville, Alabama 11/16/07


Rogers Drive, NE Huntsville, 11/17/07


Looking up at Monte Sano from Oak Park 11/16/07


Maple leaves in NE Huntsville




Cullman County, AL 11/16/07 morning


Cullman County 11/16/07 morning


Vinemont, Cullman County


NE Huntsville 11/16/07 late afternoon


NE Huntsville 11/16/07


Vinemont, AL


Vinemont, 11/16/07 morning


Vinemont frost 11/16/07 morning


Cullman, AL frosty morning 11/16/07


Cullman frost 11/16/07

Thursday, November 15, 2007

Tennessee tornado

Last night's storm that travelled eastward just north of the Alabama-Tennessee state line may have been a tornado.

Possible tornado damages buildings in Tennessee town
"Authorities say high winds, possibly from a tornado, damaged buildings and caused minor injuries to three children in an area near Chattanooga, Tennessee, on Wednesday night. The Tennessee Highway Patrol and residents reported seeing a tornado touch down in Marion County at 7:20 p.m."

I posted about this storm last night as it occurred here and here.

Sidr makes landfall

Tropical Cyclone Sidr made landfall this morning in Bangladesh as the equivalent of an F4 hurricane with winds estimated at 150 miles per hour. A good friend referred me to Jeff Masters' blog for some very interesting reading and images. This may turn out to be a major catastrophe.

Yesterday's storms


The long-range output that we followed here on this blog ever since Halloween did, in fact, have some merit after all. After a major about face this weekend, the storm did eventually materialize. That is why I pay attention to long range model output but I do not put much faith in specific details.

There were a few reports of "straight-line" wind damage in the Tennessee Valley of North Alabama:

0140 UNK HUNTSVILLE MADISON AL 3473 8659 TREES DOWN ON VANDERBILT ROAD NEAR HUNTSVILLE HIGH SCHOOL. (HUN)

0155 UNK OWENS CROSSROADS MADISON AL 3458 8646 OLD BIG COVE ROAD NEAR GREEN MOUNTAIN. WINDS RIPPED A QUALITY METAL ROOF OFF AND BLEW IT ABOUT 800 FT. (HUN)

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Heavy rain and thunder here




...as the last of the big storms roll through before the frontal passage...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING, Walker County



SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
745 PM CST WED NOV 14 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN WALKER COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...JASPER...CARBON HILL...
EAST CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 815 PM CST

* AT 743 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
KANSAS...OR NEAR CARBON HILL...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
7 MILES NORTH OF WEST CORONA BY 755 PM CST...
TOWNLEY BY 800 PM CST...
7 MILES SOUTH OF GAMBLE BY 805 PM CST...
OAKMAN BY 810 PM CST...
PARRISH AND 6 MILES SOUTH OF JASPER BY 815 PM CST...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING, Limestone and Madison


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
742 PM CST WED NOV 14 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN LIMESTONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 830 PM CST

* AT 736 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
TRIANA...OR ABOUT 7 MILES SOUTH OF MADISON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MADISON...
TRIANA...
REDSTONE ARSENAL...
HUNTSVILLE...
MORGAN CITY...

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS
STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER
ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORNADO WARNING, Hamilton Co., TN


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
818 PM EST WED NOV 14 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HAMILTON COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CHATTANOOGA...
MARION COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 900 PM EST/800 PM CST/

* AT 713 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SIGNAL MOUNTAIN...OR ABOUT 7 MILES EAST OF JASPER...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SIGNAL MOUNTAIN BY 830 PM EST...
CHATTANOOGA BY 835 PM EST...
HARRISON BY 850 PM EST...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
OF 3/4 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER AND DESTRUCTIVE OUTFLOW WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 MPH.

Storms seem to be weakening...

The storms are in a weakening trend as they enter Alabama. They are moving more stable air and the heating of the day is subsiding. The temperature at my location is still 69 degrees. There may still be a few warnings in Alabama before all is said and done.

TVS in TN

TORNADO WARNING, Marion Co., TN


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
622 PM CST WED NOV 14 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
MARION COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF JASPER...

* UNTIL 715 PM CST

* AT 620 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 16 MILES WEST OF
SOUTH PITTSBURG...OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WINCHESTER...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SOUTH PITTSBURG BY 655 PM CST...
JASPER BY 705 PM CST...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
OF 3/4 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER AND DESTRUCTIVE OUTFLOW WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 MPH.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT OR STORM
SHELTER. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF
NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TORNADO WARNING, Franklin Co., TN



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
557 PM CST WED NOV 14 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 645 PM CST

* AT 553 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR HUNTLAND...
OR ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WINCHESTER...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
HUNTLAND.
BEANS CREEK.
MAXWELL.

TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL YOU
SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO...IT MAY BE TOO LATE. TAKE COVER NOW.

---

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
533 PM CST WED NOV 14 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 600 PM CST

* AT 530 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 13 MILES WEST OF
HUNTLAND...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAYETTEVILLE...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
HUNTLAND.
WINCHESTER.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TO NEAR 60
MPH...EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE TORNADO AREA.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch



The following counties in NW Alabama have been placed under a thunderstorm watch:

Colbert
Lauderdale
Franklin
Lamar
Marion

It still looks like the primary action will be tonight.

Updated outlook for this afternoon and evening



The SPC has moved the risk area for severe weather further down into North Alabama. Here are a few excerpts from their discussion:

DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AND AMPLIFY AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MS RIVER VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD

AT THE SURFACE... STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SEWD INTO THE MID SOUTH/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S AND MILD NOVEMBER AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BOOST MLCAPE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/MID SOUTH REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ROTATION/PERSISTENCE TO THE STRONGER CORES AND THESE MAY YIELD HAIL TODAY. MORE ROBUST CONVECTION SHOULD AWAIT STRONGER HEATING AND DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO SRN AR/NRN MS/WRN TN DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION INDICATE LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS OR SMALL LINES MOVING QUICKLY SEWD THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH SOME HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

Storms tonight...


James Spann mentions the following,
"Still looks like the main window for showers and storms with the front will come from about 9:00 tonight through 6:00 tomorrow morning. SPC has a slight risk of severe weather in the area from Texarkana to Muscle Shoals, but as the storms move down into this part of Alabama, the air will be more stable and I really don’t expect a major problem with severe storms, Remember, the sun goes down at 4:50 in the afternoon this time of the year.
The QPF numbers (quantitative precipitation forecast) have come up on the 00Z model runs… the NAM is now printing .96″ for Birmingham, but the GFS remains drier with .37″. Considering our luck with rain lately, and the expected fast movement of the line, I have to side the the GFS."

Article about the Birmingham NWS

There was a nice article about the Birmingham National Weather Service Office in yesterday's Shelby County Reporter.

"Darone Jones spends most of his time at work playing on the computer.But it's not what you think. There's no shopping on eBay or trying to beat solitaire. No, his goofing around is pretty serious, and it might just save your life someday.Jones and the entire staff at the National Weather Service in Calera get to play (and work) everyday with some neat technology - stuff that would make Star Wars look like the Stone Age."We've got $15 million of cool toys here," said Jones, one of five lead forecasters. "The neat thing about our software is, if you think of it weather-wise, you can build it."

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Storms tomorrow night

It looks like we are back on board with a chance of storms tomorrow night. This does not look like a major severe weather setup, though. You know me. I will post more later!

Thursday, November 08, 2007

About face...


The GFS did an about face today and our storm event has almost disappeared. I wouldn't give up yet on this event. These models could flip and flop a few more times. Stay tuned.