Thursday, September 27, 2007

Hurricane Lorenzo


He made it to hurricane status tonight before making landfall in Mexico.

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
0300 UTC FRI SEP 28 2007

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA
TO VERACRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 96.5W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 20SE 20SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 15NE 30SE 30SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 96.5W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 96.2W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.6N 97.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.0N 98.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 96.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

HURRICANE LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2007

WHEN THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LEFT LORENZO AROUND 1930Z...
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS FALLING AT A RATE OF ABOUT 2 TO 3 MB/HR.
AT THAT TIME...LORENZO WAS VERY CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. SINCE
THEN...LORENZO HAS BEEN MAINTAINING VERY VIGOROUS CONVECTION THAT
HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC OVER THE CENTER. THE PRESENTATION
OF THE CENTER HAS ALSO IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY ON THE ALVARADO
RADAR...WHICH NOW SHOWS A CLOSED EYEWALL. GIVEN THIS...I HAVE NO
REASON TO BELIEVE THAT THE EARLIER DEEPENING TREND HAS ABATED...AND
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT. LORENZO STILL HAS
SEVERAL HOURS LEFT OVER WATER TO DEEPEN FURTHER...AND A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE AT LANDFALL WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE
NEXT AIRCRAFT WILL ARRIVE IN THE HURRICANE IN 2 TO 3 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/5. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD
KEEP THE CYCLONE ON THIS BASIC TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...WITH A GRADUAL BEND TO THE RIGHT AROUND THE RIDGE AFTER
LANDFALL.

ALTHOUGH LORENZO IS A VERY SMALL HURRICANE...ITS SLOW MOTION WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...UP TO 15 INCHES IN SPOTS...THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 20.5N 96.5W 70 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 20.6N 97.4W 75 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 29/0000Z 21.0N 98.5W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

5 comments:

Dewdrop said...

Another quick developer. Amazing. Love the crazy ones.

Speaking of crazy ones... I was in Wendy's for lunch and a man was saying to a bunch of men as he left, "Roll Tide!" Does that actually mean something...? Or is it just junk? (I am sure you and Rick will get me for that one...)

Mike said...

I bet you saw some Alabama fans on their way to Jacksonville for the game against Florida State. "Roll Tide" is sort of a cheer / battle cry / greeting among fellow Alabama fans. So , NO, it is not junk. Perish the thought, especially on this blog!

See: http://2007crimsontide.blogspot.com for further details!

Dewdrop said...

You could almost hear the testosterone... lol A whole site dedicated to Alabama football? Sheesh, that's like having a whole site dedicated to wx. ;-)

Cookeville Weather Guy said...

how do feel about this week's game?

Mike said...

Michael, I'm gonna say the Tide will win in a close one. But remember, I'm biased!