Friday, August 17, 2007

Educated long-range guesstimate on Dean

This is a pretty tough call this far in advance. The high pressure ridge in the Deep South has been particularly strong and persistent. Because of that I do not think Dean can turn too far north into the Gulf. On the other hand, models do seem to be pushing the storm gradually farther north with every run.

There is no doubt that Dean will become a major hurricane as he travels over the very warm waters of the Caribbean. A big factor for his future strength will be how much time Dean spends traveling over the Yucatan Peninsula. That will depend on his forward speed and how far north he goes. He has been moving at a fairly rapid clip and he may just brush the northern tip of the Yucatan. I am going to say that he will barely clip the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, lose a little punch, then emerge into the northern Bay of Campeche / southern Gulf of Mexico area and strengthen.

A few days later he will:
1. Make landfall on or near South Padre Island, Texas.
2. Maximum sustained winds will be 135 mph.
3. Minimum central pressure will be 925 mb.

Just a semi-educated guess!

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