Thursday, June 14, 2007

A chance of water falling from the sky?

What a novel idea! We are nearly 18" below normal rainfall so far this year, so any chance of relief is met with high hopes. Recent days have been very dry with unusually cool mornings and hot days. Lows have been between 60 and 62 (at my place) and the afternoons highs have been between 90 and 96.

Dewpoints have increased a bit today and the latest visible satellite (above) shows an upper level low pressure area moving across northeast Alabama.

At 12:48 p.m. the Hytop NEXRAD image is showing areas of convection forming in a broken line extending from Chattanooga northward. Another area of convection is occurring in near the GA, TN, and NC borders.

As daytime heating increases and interacts with this upper level low, I expect showers and thunderstorms to develop over the eastern half of Alabama. I am not expecting this to be a major drought-buster, but it may provide some relief to a few Alabamians.

The SPC has placed much of Alabama (except for the extreme northwest part of the state) under a slight risk for severe storms. In my humble opinion, the threat appears marginal. I believe the greatest threat may be large hail and gusty winds. Always remember that lightning is an underrated killer.

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