Friday, April 13, 2007

Looking ahead


Saturday 4/14/07 Outlook by the SPC

The SPC continues with a moderate risk of severe weather for today for much of eastern Texas, southern Arkansas, and northern and western Louisiana. Tomorrow (Saturday) the moderate risk area shifts to southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Florida panhandle.

Here are a few notes mentioned by James Spann this morning:



  • Instability values will be greatest over South Alabama

  • The low pressure system is not predicted to intensify much until it passes to our northeast

  • Positive-tilt trough

  • Strong, veering wind fields in the lower atmosphere

  • Dewpoints again will be critical (they would need to rise above 60)

  • GFS continues to slow the system down, so it may hit us in the afternoon peak heating hours

This is an exerpt from the SPC regarding tomorrow's storms:


MEANWHILE...BROAD REGION OF SLY SURFACE WIND IS FORECAST TO BE ADVECTING RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE NWD OFF THE GULF INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. THOUGH WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION...MID 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN HALVES OF THE GULF COAST STATES BY MIDDAY COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.


Residents of Alabama should be weather alert tomorrow. I expect that much of the state will be placed under a tornado watch during the afternoon hours and that there will be some tornado warnings, especially from Birmingham southward.

4 comments:

Dewdrop said...

I can't believe it... just when I leave, it comes. How's that for twisted (pun intended) irony...?

Mike said...

yes, it looks like you would be in the bull's eye in South GA Saturday night...another nite time event though...

Rick said...

BRING IT! I am off EMS duty at 7pm...Perfect timing!

Mike said...

Good timing for you Rick, except the night part...