Thursday, March 01, 2007

Mesoscale Discussion from SPC



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 AM CST THU MAR 01 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR ACROSS NRN MS...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 011254Z - 011400Z

WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TO INCLUDE POSSIBLE LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MS AND TN VALLEYS THROUGH THIS MORNING. TORNADO WATCH COORDINATION ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL COMMENCE SHORTLY.

POWERFUL LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH PRONOUNCED DIFFLUENT FLOW OF OVER 100KT FORECAST TO SPREAD EAST ATOP INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR FROM THE NRN GULF COAST NWD ACROSS MS/AL...AND MUCH OF TN. GIVEN SPEED OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE INTENSIFYING VERTICAL MOTION...A LARGE PDS WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LFC WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR FAMILIES OF LONG-TRACK SUPERCELL STORMS. TORNADO THREAT...CURRENTLY WELL ESTABLISHED OVER SRN MO...AR...AND LA...WILL SHIFT STEADILY EWD ACROSS THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE MORNING.

..CARBIN.. 03/01/2007

No comments: