Thursday, March 01, 2007

7 AM Convective Outlook From SPC





Here are a few exerpts...

...MAJOR OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT...

VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH IS BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100+ KT MID LEVEL JET MAX IS FORECAST TO ROTATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY INTO THE TN VALLEY. WIDESPREAD EXTREMELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...COUPLED WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...INDICATE THE THREAT OF A LARGE OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG OR VIOLENT.

...MID MS VALLEY... FIRST WAVE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MO AND NORTHERN AR. THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD THE MS RIVER. SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOW THIS MORNING DUE TO MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION. HOWEVER...UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD AREA...AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TX AND LA BY MID MORNING.

...GULF COAST REGION... PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN LA AND MS BY MID MORNING...AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. THIS REGION WILL BE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG EXPECTED. VERY IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE IN PLACE AND WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG/ VIOLENT TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF AL/GA AND INTO NORTHERN FL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAPID MOVEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH...STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS...AND QUALITY OF RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALL POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES TODAY.

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