Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Severe Weather Outlook Update



The threat of severe weather tomorrow is increasing, according to the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma. Below is an exerpt from their latest outlook.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 AM CST WED FEB 28 2007 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS LA...AR...MO...IL...SWRN INDIANA...WRN KY...WRN/MID TN...MS...AL...GA...SC...

OUTBREAK OF SVR TSTMS -- INCLUDING CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-VIOLENT TORNADOES -- WILL AFFECT PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN CONUS. UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE MODE REMAIN ATTM...PRECLUDING HIGH PROBABILITIES THIS SOON. HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE OF SOME PORTION OF CATEGORICAL MDT RISK AREA IS POSSIBLE IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS VALID FOR THIS PERIOD. ...


...MID SOUTH...MS/AL... MAXIMIZED SFC HEATING WILL COINCIDE WITH OPTIMAL VERTICAL SHEAR AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MAXIMIZE RISK FOR SVR HAIL...WIND...AND IN PARTICULAR...SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY REMAIN AOB 7 DEG C/KM...SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD INCREASE INTO 60S F ALONG AND S OF MARINE FRONT. THIS WILL SUPPORT POCKETS OF MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG...WHERE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER OCCUR BEHIND EARLY-PERIOD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WAA REGIME. THIS WILL BE SUITABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS -- 0-1 KM SRH AOA 300 J/KG -- AND 0-6 KM SHEAR EXCEEDING 60 KT. A FEW LONG-LIVED AND LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRENGTH OF DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILES AND RAPID NEWD SPREAD OF FAVORABLE INFLOW-LAYER MOISTURE.

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